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Analysis: 2012 PV industry key words - Phoenix Nirvana
In the past year, it can be said that it is “severe winter†for China's photovoltaic industry: the European market is shrinking, the US “double-reverse†survey, and the “Guidance Catalogue for Foreign Investment Industries (2011 Revision)†encourages the “extraction of polysiliconâ€. More than one-third of the relevant PV companies in China are in a state of suspension of production... Some people describe this difficult situation with “sadness and sorrowâ€, and people have to seriously examine where the photovoltaic industry is going. The good beginning of the year, well-known solar companies Yingli Group, a high-profile announcement to enter the domestic olive oil sales. From the emerging industries to the traditional business sector, what are the reasons? Miao Liansheng, chairman of Yingli Group, said that the domestic PV module and raw material industry has bid farewell to the past era of profiteering, and the photovoltaic market has entered a cold winter period. Such adjustments can be more adapted to various changes in the outside world. One leaf and know the autumn. Throughout the recent history of China's photovoltaic industry, the development track of “slow-fast-explosion-stagnation†is clearly visible. By 2010, there were 16 PV companies listed overseas in China, and China accounted for 4 of the top 10 global PV module and polysilicon production. However, in 2011, the photovoltaic industry showed a "free fall" trend, and photovoltaic companies were forced to collectively "enter winter." In the fourth quarter of 2011, the price of photovoltaic products went all the way down. In late November, China's photovoltaic companies listed in the US released three quarterly reports, only the new energy and Jingke Energy remained profitable, and the other six companies all suffered different degrees of losses. In its heyday, the market value of Saiwei and Suntech was as high as 10 billion US dollars; today, the market value of these two companies is only about 340 million US dollars. The photovoltaic industry has reached the end of the road? Most people in the industry do not agree with this pessimistic argument, convinced that this is only the "painful" stage of development, and the industry prospects are still good. Li Junfeng, deputy director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, is very optimistic about the prospects of photovoltaics. He believes that the development of new energy has become the focus of development of all countries, and photovoltaics are universal. These all indicate that the photovoltaic industry has huge market space in the future. The International Energy Agency has made the following predictions for the future development of solar photovoltaic power generation: in 2020, the world's photovoltaic power generation accounts for 2% of the total power generation. By 2030, renewable energy accounts for more than 30% of the total energy structure. It has reached more than 10% of the world's total electricity supply. Also optimistic is the international photovoltaic research institute "solar investment", they recently released the latest industry report pointed out that in 2012 the global PV demand market is expected to grow by 6%, the European market decline will be compensated by 43% growth rate in other regions. "From a longer-term, broader perspective, the winter of the photovoltaic industry will eventually pass," said Peng Xiaofeng, chairman of Jiangxi Saiwei. Advantages How to establish a high-end industry at the beginning of development, China's photovoltaic industry relies on cheap labor and low environmental protection costs to win a large market share, is an indisputable objective fact. However, the cost advantage must not become the main and even the only advantage of China's photovoltaic industry. Practice has proved that it is impossible to occupy the old road of the low end of the industry through low cost. At the moment of life and death, China's photovoltaic industry must rely on technological innovation, occupy the high end of the industrial chain, and grasp the commanding heights of future development. "The advantages of China's solar energy industry are large scale and low cost. The disadvantage is that there is no technological advantage. In the future, the industry needs to shift its development focus. Don't just expand the scale at a low level, but make the products more refined and better." Liu Shulin and Gao Wei from the Center for Technology Innovation and Strategic Management of the Institute said in their research report "Photovoltaic Industry Development Strategy Research Report". The report also pointed out that from the perspective of technology in the photovoltaic industry, the level of scientific and technological development is generally in its infancy, and China is at the same starting point as other countries. Through the analysis of the patented technology of typical enterprises, it can be found that the patents of China's photovoltaic enterprises have experienced explosive growth in 2009, and their growth momentum has continued to this day. "The rapid growth of invention patents means that China's PV industry is not an industry that only creates and does not create. It is an industry that is the same starting point as a foreign country and is the world's first phalanx." European photovoltaic technology held in Europe last September. At the exhibition, the components of 60 156×156mm photovoltaic cells developed by the State Key Laboratory of Photovoltaic Science and Technology, which belongs to Changzhou Trina Solar Energy Co., Ltd., have been certified as a new world record by TUVRheinland (Rheinland), the global quality certification authority. It shows that China's photovoltaic technology research and development capabilities have reached world-class levels. At the same time, the photovoltaic industry production process still needs continuous improvement, and is still in the uncertain stage of the manufacturing process. Chinese enterprises can take advantage of flexibility and quick response, continuously improve production processes, improve efficiency, and occupy high-end industries. Where the market finds domestic demand is too dependent on overseas markets, it is the most prominent feature of China's photovoltaic industry, and it is also the most obvious weakness. At present, the market for most of China's PV companies is overseas, and large-scale PV companies are particularly serious, and even more than 98% rely on exports. The growing European debt crisis has caused the European market to shrink sharply. In August last year, China's exports of photovoltaic products to Germany and Italy fell by 34% and 62.6% respectively. When external demand expansion has no way to find it, with the continuous introduction of support measures, the domestic demand of the photovoltaic industry will be dazzled. In July last year, China announced the solar photovoltaic power generation on-grid price policy, which stipulated that the solar photovoltaic power generation project approved for construction before July 1, 2011 and completed and put into operation on December 31, 2011, and the price has not yet been approved, the on-grid price is uniformly approved for each kWh 1.15 yuan; solar photovoltaic power generation projects approved on July 1, 2011 and beyond, and solar photovoltaic power generation projects approved before July 1, 2011 but not yet completed and put into operation as of December 31, 2011, except Tibet Except for the on-grid tariff of 1.15 yuan per kWh, the on-grid tariffs of other provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) are executed at 1 yuan per kWh. Industry experts have said that this is a major positive for opening up the domestic market: PV benchmarking on-grid tariffs have been introduced to inject “cardiotonic agents†into the rapid start of the domestic PV application market; the renewable energy tariffs have finally been settled, ensuring the renewable energy industry. The source of funds. The good news is still coming. The National Energy Administration recently revealed to the outside world that the "12th Five-Year Plan for China's Renewable Energy Development" has been upgraded from the original "to 10GW of solar power generation to 2015" to 15GW; compared with the earliest "5GW" Goal, the target has been raised twice in a row. The Ministry of Finance also recently issued the "Notice on Organizing the Implementation of the 2012 Solar Energy Photovoltaic Building Application Demonstration", indicating that eligible photovoltaic buildings can receive subsidies this year. Li Junfeng said that the state's policy on the photovoltaic industry is already in place, and these can be seen as positive signals from the government for the development of the industry. With the introduction of various government support policies, will the turnaround of the PV market appear this year? When will the PV industry downturn turn around? How will China's PV companies find a way out? let us wait and see.