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They said that global aluminum stocks are not as tight as copper stocks, although high energy costs are limiting the output of aluminum smelters, which are large consumers of electricity.
"Aluminium prices have been rising because of ignoring more inventory because investors want to find the next hot commodity."
Three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange (LME) broke through at $2,400 an ounce Friday, the first time since January 1989.
LME three-month aluminum has risen by nearly 6% since the beginning of the year and has surged nearly 35% in the past six months.
Deutsche Bank raised its average aluminum price forecast for 2006 by 23% to 2,425 US dollars on Friday, indicating that industrial production will continue to grow strongly.
It is also expected that the average price of aluminum in the previous quarter will reach 2,315.
Mel Financial, a commodities analyst at Man Financial, said, “Growth looks very robust. We have not yet seen any slowdown in growth in the major aluminum consumer countries, despite the high energy prices and interest rates.â€
Man Financial estimates that the average aluminum price for the first quarter of this year will be US$2,313. The average price for this year will be 2,278, and the average price last year will be 1,898.
High energy costs
The high costs of energy and raw materials have caused the market to worry that global aluminum production will decline, and the United States, Europe and China are cutting output.
Alcan, the world’s second-largest primary aluminum producer, said that it will close its Steg smelter in Switzerland by the end of April, with an annual capacity of 44,000 tons.
China's measures to restrict aluminum exports also seem to have worked. China exported 1.07 million tons of primary aluminum in the first 11 months of last year, a decrease of 9.4% from the same period last year.
But Moore said, "The reduction in output of smelters related to electricity consumption has caused some market impact, but the impact of production cuts has been offset by capacity expansion in places like Iceland."
The world’s largest smelter, Alcoa, is building a smelter in Iceland, and Canada’s aluminum industry is also expanding here.
Moore said that global stocks, including stocks of exchanges and manufacturers, are about 3 million tons, equivalent to about five weeks of consumption.
He said, "This is not nervous."
Market re-supply gap
Deutsche Bank stated that although consumption growth in Western countries has fallen sharply, the global market has once again experienced a supply gap.
Deutsche Bank stated in a report that in 2005, the global primary aluminum production capacity increased from 29 million tons in 2002 to 36.4 million tons, but the equipment utilization rate dropped from 90% to 86.1% in the same period.
It added that in 2007 the market will have a slight supply surplus.
According to Ingrid Sternby of Barclays Capital International, “The reduction in aluminum consumption in the United States in 2005 was related to a significant reduction in inventories. Therefore, we expect that if aluminum prices are weak, there will be strong buying interest as orders appear to be good.â€
However, analysts said aluminum is easily replaced. If aluminum prices continue to rise, steel is expected to be more popular with auto makers, and plastics and paperboard may invade the market share of aluminum in the packaging industry.
However, the fund will be the key to all metal prices this year.
Bache Financial's mining analyst McMillan said that "aluminum supply is already in excess, and if it is not affected by the purchase of funds, aluminum prices will not rise to the current level."
Analysts claim that aluminum prices continue to rise but filling inventory may hinder them
LONDON, January 13: Analysts said on Friday that strong economic growth and strong buying interest in investment funds may further support aluminum prices that have reached a 17-year high, but the full supply will limit aluminum prices.