On May 13th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the main data of industrial production above designated size in April. Among them, April’s cement production was 214.88 million tons, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, 1.8 percentage points higher than the growth rate of cement production in March. The cumulative output was 64.16 million tons, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year, which was 0.2% higher than the cumulative growth of cement production from January to March. Shows that the recovery of demand in the cement industry has accelerated.

Infrastructure investment and real estate investment continue to support cement demand. According to the latest statistical data, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased nominally by 20.6% year-on-year from January to April, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points lower than that in the first three months. However, from a month-on-month perspective, fixed-asset investment in April (excluding farmers) ) increased by 1.63%. Investment in real estate development rose by 21.1% over the same period last year, which was an increase of 0.9% from January to March. Among them, residential investment increased by 21.3%, the growth rate increased by 0.2 percentage points, accounting for 68.4% of real estate development investment.

East China rose again to lead the country's cement price trend differentiation The latest data show that last week the average price of the national cement market rose by 0.3%. The price of cement in East China rose 1.7% again, of which cement prices in Zhejiang and Jiangxi increased by 20-30 yuan per ton. At the same time, Zhejiang Province plans to stop production of clinker lines for 10-15 days starting on May 25th to prepare for the weakening demand in the off-season in the middle of June in the Meiyu rainy season. The reduction in supply through proper stoppages can prevent prices from falling rapidly.

On the whole, since the end of March, although the national average price of cement has been rising steadily, the price of cement in the six regions of the country has shown a trend of differentiation. The price of cement in East China has gained the best, followed by the northwestern areas of Shaanxi, Gansu and Qinghai, and in North China, The northeast, south-central and southwest regions maintained tepid trend.

At present, cement prices in the entire East China region have basically reached the fourth quarter of last year. From the middle of March, the accumulated growth in the region had a 43% rise in cement prices in Jiangxi, 21% in Jiangsu, 21% in Zhejiang, 20% in Shanghai, and 7% in Anhui. After the continuous rise in the price of cement in East China, the upward speed has shown signs of slowing down. However, due to the deteriorating demand situation and the marked decrease in inventory, the newly added capacity in the region has been put into production. Leading companies have shown strong control over the price of cement in East China. The second quarter is expected. East China Cement prices will remain high.

The prices in the northwest have generally remained stable, and some regions have risen steadily. Shaanxi Guanzhong Xi'an and Xianyang still maintained the booming situation of production and sales; individual manufacturers in Gansu Lanzhou, Baiyin and other places offered higher prices; under the support of projects under construction such as railways and highways, cement prices rose by 20 yuan per ton on May 1. Ningxia Guyuan was boosted by Tianshui and Pingliang in Gansu, and the cement price rose by RMB 15 per ton. However, the market within the region is quite different. The market demand in Shaanxi and Gansu is good, and there is still room for growth in the future. In Xinjiang and Ningxia, due to oversupply, supply exceeds demand, and although there is a recovery in demand, it is difficult to raise prices significantly.

Cement prices in other regions remained tepid. Following adjustments in prices in Beijing and Chongqing since the price adjustment, the volume of shipments of various enterprises increased from the previous period, and the inventory declined slightly. SMEs' quotations were raised by 10-15 yuan per ton from the previous period, mainly The price difference with large companies is large, and if the shipment volume is better than that of large companies, prices will be adjusted upwards. However, as regional demand growth is still slow, there is little room for short-term price adjustments.

The temperature in Northeast China rebounded in May and the project was fully started. Since the prices of Heilongjiang and Jilin have been at high levels, the opening price is mainly stable, and the latter companies will adjust the new prices according to the downstream demand conditions. In addition to Dalian, Dalian has maintained a steady increase in demand for prices by 20 yuan per ton.

Prices in South Central China remain low. Affected by the rain weather in Guangdong and Guangxi Provinces, the shipments of various enterprises are still sluggish, and the inventory is running at a high level. Some production lines are stopped for maintenance, and the overall price is mainly stable. Hubei Eastern Hubei stocks are operating at low levels, but current rains have caused signs of recovery in stocks. Heavy rain has appeared in western Hubei, leading companies have only shipped about 50% of their previous period, and prices are now stable.

In the southwest region, the high price of cement stocks is temporarily stable. Demand in Sichuan continued to weaken due to the increase in rainfall, and the inventory of leading companies in many regions increased significantly. Demand in Chongqing remains sluggish, with some companies in the main city increasing their cement prices by 30 yuan per ton because of the overall poor market demand. Even after the company adjusts its shipments, it shrinks and contracts, and the off-season is approaching. This will pave the way for later price declines. Guizhou's demand is relatively stable. Leading companies mainly rely on stable price shipments. In southeastern Guizhou, heavy rains occur and demand continues to shrink. The Yunnan market is operating smoothly and the demand is still tepid. Taking into account the impact of post-disaster reconstruction, cement demand in Sichuan may exceed expectations in the future. Considering that cement prices in Sichuan and Chongqing are currently at historically low levels, companies are mostly in a state of low profit or loss, and there is room for improvement in cement prices in the later period.

The second-quarter earnings of Huaxibeibei enterprises will be significantly improved. As the cement prices in the peak season show a differentiation trend, the recovery pattern of the cement industry this year is expected to be the recovery of profitability of leading enterprises, and SMEs will maintain the difficult situation. In the eastern and western regions of Shaanxi, Gansu and Qinghai, where the price of cement in the peak season has apparently rebounded, the second-quarter earnings of enterprises in the region may show significant improvement. It is initially expected that as long as the prices of cement in East China and Northwest China do not fall sharply in the next month, the semi-annual reports of relevant listed companies will have bright spots. In particular, the earnings of large-scale leading enterprises in the second quarter may also achieve positive growth year-on-year.