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Coal-fired linkage boosts aluminum prices
Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Circular on Establishing a Coal Mine Electricity Price Linkage Mechanism", and made clear the important issues such as the linkage calculation method of coal-fired electricity, the calculation basis of the first linkage, the price adjustment cycle, and the linkage between the sales price and the on-grid tariff. With the official introduction of the coal-fired linkage project, the cost pressure in the power industry will be partially relieved, and the performance of coal companies will steadily increase. The price of coal will gradually be fully liberalized. The obstacles to the establishment and operation of the coal trading market have been eliminated and the time is ripe. Industry insiders believe that due to the scheme's retrospective adjustment of electricity prices, it is expected that the thermal power company's on-grid tariff will be adjusted once in the first quarter of next year. Affected by this news, today's Shanghai aluminum market is still hot, and March's increase in holdings exceeded 10,000 lots in a row for the second consecutive trading day, indicating that new funds have been involved, mainly speculative long positions. Meanwhile, since March aluminum prices have been To achieve some of the aluminum factory's psychological value - 16,500 yuan / ton, so they have started selling hedge. For the cancellation of export tax rebates next year will lead to a substantial reduction in exports of electrolytic aluminum, aluminum plant, the rebound in futures prices will be a good opportunity to maintain value, it is expected that the increase in aluminum will not be much, but technically short-term The internal price will also launch an impact on 17,000 yuan/ton. l In the analysis of the spread between Shanghai and Shanghai on a monthly basis, the price difference between April and April was 1,730 points, a decrease of 130 points. The difference between January and February was 690 points, a decrease of 100 points. The difference between February and February was 570 points, a decrease of 20 points. 3- The spread in April was 470 points, down 10 points. The pattern of the Shanghai copper market today is almost the same as the previous few days – still weaker in the current month, mainly due to the suppression of long positions, but the volume of transactions affected by LME's rest factors is relatively small. From a technical point of view, Shanghai Copper resumed its short-term strong line in March – the 5-day moving average. The current price is in a more sensitive position. The price should have a upward test of 28,900. However, before this position is broken, Shanghai Copper seems to be within this year. The probability of a fall is high. In terms of copper and aluminum arbitrage, the spread between March copper and March aluminum increased significantly by 10 points to 11,200 points. LME Closed Tips: LME Christmas, New Year's Closed Arrangement: Christmas Eve on Friday, December 24, 2004 - ring trading and Select trading will stop at 13:30 London time. Monday, December 27, 2004 Boxing Day is closed for rest. On Tuesday, December 28th, 2004, Christmas Day will be closed for rest. Monday, January 3, 2005 New Years Day was closed for the rest of the year. l Inter-market arbitrage analysis operations. Buy SHFE January copper bullish LME three-month copper arbitrage positions (compared to 8.84, 8.89, 8.86 (all three shift positions), Positions are 10%, 10%, and 10% respectively. Buy SHFE February copper bullish LME three-month copper arbitrage positions (compared to 9.23, 9.18 (all after a transfer), positions are 20%, 20% respectively) continue to hold Have. l Due to the fact that LME is closed, domestic imports of copper trade and spot status cannot be calculated for the status of the profit and loss of imports. Today, Shanghai spot water copper premium 500-600 yuan / ton, quoted at 30,500/600 yuan / ton.