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After a sharp decline last week, the LME copper market soared this week, continuing to recover the 9400, 9500, 9600, 9700 and 9800 and other integer mark, and opened lower and higher. China and the European Central Bank announced the rate hike, inflation expectations increased, the Shanghai copper market rose sharply, Shanghai copper stocks dropped sharply, the European and American economies continued to recover, the metal demand prospects are good, the US initial and continued unemployed decline, the employment situation improved, the US dollar Significantly weaker and commodity markets have soared. Western speculators are eager to keep their hearts warm. Recently, at the CESCO Copper Summit and CRU Copper Summit in Chile, participants are still very optimistic about the second half of the copper price. It is generally believed that global copper will still be in a large gap in 2011 and prices will return to more than US$10,000/t. The three-month copper price of LME rose by 5.5%. After the trend forecast: short-term blocked by 10,000, amplitude 9800 ~ 10000, medium-term volatility 7800 ~ 12000, long-term volatility 6500 ~ 12000.
Aluminum: opening 2648, the highest 2715, the lowest 2622, closing 2713.
This week, the LME aluminum market was a bullish one, stepping up steadily, rising sharply, continuing to hit a new high since September 2008, breaking through and stabilizing above the 2700 mark. However, the increase still lags behind the broader market, especially copper prices. The positive factors are relatively high: Europe and the United States have good economic data, the economy is recovering steadily, inflation expectations are heating up, LME aluminum technology graphics have broken through the recent interval, energy costs for aluminum smelting have increased, the dollar has weakened sharply, and the global commodity market has soared. LME aluminum stocks remain high, Europe and China raise interest rates, Moody's again lowered the debt rating of Portugal, the US ISM service industry index fell. ** Speculative buying and short-covering buying were boosted, but there were some profit-taking and long-term sell-offs. LME 3-month aluminum futures gained 3.07%.
After the trend forecast: short-term continue to spike, volatility 2680 ~ 2750, medium-term volatility 2200-3200, long-term volatility 1900 ~ 3200.
Nickel: Opening 26100, the highest 27650, the lowest 25050, closing 27650.
After last week's plunge, the nickel market of LME soared this week, continuing to recover an integer mark of 26,000 and 27,000. China raised interest rates, Moody's downgraded Portugal’s debt rating again, the decline in the US ISM service industry index and other factors, dragged speculative liquidation, and constantly tested 25,000 support. Mid-week and late-week economic data from Europe and the United States were positive and global inflation expectations warmed (European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in more than two years), the number of unemployed people in the United States initially declined, the U.S. dollar weakened sharply, LME nickel stocks continued to decline sharply, and the global commodity market Driven by favorable factors such as general sharp rises, there has been a retaliatory rally and finally a breakthrough and stabilization of the 27,000 mark. CTA** technical speculative buying and short-covering buying influx, LME 3-month nickel prices rose by 8% per week.
After the trend forecast: short-term stabilization above 25,000, volatility 25200 ~ 26000, medium-term volatility 20000 ~ 30,000, long-term volatility 17500 ~ 30,000.
Zinc: Opening 2350, the highest 2535, the lowest 2350, closing 2535.
After going through nearly a month of sluggish growth and lagging significantly behind the broader market, the LME zinc market has finally surged following the broader market this week, recovering important levels such as 2400 and 2500. Although LME zinc stocks remained high, Shanghai zinc stocks increased significantly, spot buying was inactive, Japan’s largest zinc smelter resumed production, and other negative factors dragged down, but LME zinc technology graphics are positive, European and US economic data is positive, and inflation expectations are heating up. The US dollar weakened sharply and the commodity market generally rose sharply. CTA** technical speculative buying and short-covering buying became the main force. LME 3-month zinc gains were 6.06%.
After the trend forecast: short-term high saw, volatility 2500 ~ 2580, medium-term volatility 2000 ~ 2650, long-term volatility 1750 ~ 3000.
Tin: Opening 31750, the highest 33100, the lowest 31,200, closing 33100.
After two months of high consolidation, the LME tin market finally broke through the recent range, broke through and stabilized the 33,000 mark, and set a record high. Technical graphics are tempted to break up and enter the no-resistance zone again. Global inflation expectations are on the rise, technological graphics have broken through, and the US dollar has weakened considerably. China's tin demand outlook is positive, Indonesia's tin supply is expected to decrease, the European and US economic data are improving, the recovery is obvious, and commodity prices generally rise sharply. ** Speculative buying and short-covering buying rallies. The LME rose by 4.58% over the three-month period.
After the trend forecast: short-term continue to rise, volatility 32800 ~ 33400, medium-term volatility 22000 ~ 35000, long-term volatility 18500 ~ 35000.
Lead: opening 2670, the highest 2865, the lowest 2670, closing 2850.
This week, the LME lead market has skyrocketed, breaking through and stabilizing above the important threshold of 2800, setting a new high since April 2008. The bullishness of the market bullish, speculation ** is mainly speculation about the shutdown of the Magellan lead mine in Australia and the expected increase in consumption in Japan. At the same time, LME lead inventories continued to drop sharply. European and American economic data were favorable, and interest rates were raised, inflation expectations were expected to increase, the US dollar weakened substantially, and commodity markets generally rose sharply. The spot premium between April and May and the spot premium between May and June increased significantly, and the bears have been clearly run short recently. Controls ** buying, CTA ** technical speculative buying, and short-covering buying became the main force. The LME rose by 5.55% over the three-month period.
After the trend forecast: short-term continued red, volatility 2810 ~ 2900, medium-term volatility 2000 ~ 3500, period volatility 2000 ~ 3500. (Note: The price of the metal in the article is in USD/t)
Good market prospects
Copper: opening 9450, the highest 9896, the lowest 9264, closing 9875.