The shock wave brought by the “531” weaning policy allowed the photovoltaic industry to surrender the second highest transcript in the history of new installed capacity in 2018, while the enterprises in the industrial chain were “happy and worried”. In 2019, the National Energy Administration will conduct “dual-track management” of the photovoltaic industry according to whether subsidies are needed. In principle, projects requiring state subsidies should adopt market-based competition methods to determine construction projects and subsidy standards, and relevant policies will be introduced as soon as possible. Although the industry is optimistic about the overall domestic market situation this year, the new installed capacity is expected to be 35GW to 45GW, and the foreign installed capacity is also blooming everywhere. However, the overall demand may appear to be “cold and hot”, and the integration will accelerate.

Joy and worry increase the second highest installed capacity history

According to the National Energy Administration, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in the year of 2018 was 44.26 million kilowatts, second only to the new installed capacity in 2017, the second highest in history. Among them, centralized power plants and distributed photovoltaics added 23.3 million kilowatts and 20.96 million kilowatts respectively, and the development layout was further optimized. By the end of December, the national installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation reached 174 million kilowatts, an increase of 34% year-on-year, of which, the centralized power station was 123.84 million kilowatts, and the distributed photovoltaic was 50.61 million kilowatts.

As the scale continues to expand, the level of utilization is also increasing. In 2018, the national photovoltaic power generation capacity was 177.5 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 50%. The average utilization hours was 1115 hours, an increase of 37 hours compared with the same period of last year; in the areas with higher average utilization hours of photovoltaic power generation, 1617 hours in Mengxi, 1523 hours in Mengdong, 1460 hours in Qinghai, and 1439 hours in Sichuan.

The phenomenon of abandoned light has further improved. Li Chuangjun, deputy director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, said that in 2018, the national photovoltaic power generation abandoned photoelectric output decreased by 1.8 billion kWh, and the light rejection rate decreased by 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, achieving the abandoned photoelectric output and light rejection rate. "Double drop." The abandoned light is mainly concentrated in Xinjiang and Gansu. Among them, Xinjiang (excluding the Corps) abandoned 2.14 billion kWh of photovoltaic energy, and the light rejection rate was 16%, down 6 percentage points year-on-year; Gansu abandoned photoelectricity 1.03 billion kWh, and the light rejection rate was 10 %, down 10 percentage points year on year.

However, it is worth noting that the shock wave brought by the “531” weaning policy still makes the enterprises in the photovoltaic industry chain “a few happy ones”, which can be seen from the performance of listed companies. Aikang Technology expects net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies to increase by 120.35% to 208.49% in 2018. Jingsheng Electromechanical Co., Ltd., the leader in crystal growth furnace equipment, expects net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies to reach 561 million yuan to 677 million yuan last year. The growth rate was 45% to 75%; the performance of Zhongli Group was also pre-increased, ranging from 8.01% to 57.10%.

However, at the mid-stream component end, the performance of the single-chip leading Longji shares, Zhonghuan shares and polycrystalline faucet GCL integration reflects the fierce competition in this segment. Among them, Longji's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 2.661 billion yuan to 2.761 billion yuan, down 22.55% year-on-year to 25.36%, which was the first time in five years that net profit fell. And GCL integration may face the risk of accruing large bad debts. Therefore, there was a big uncertainty in net profit last year: a loss of 400 million yuan to a profit of 50 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 17.77 times to an increase of 1.10 times.

Dual-track management subsidy standard to be introduced

“Photovoltaic power generation has shifted from high-speed growth stage to high-quality development stage.” Li Chuangjun said, “In 2019, we will continue to promote the development of photovoltaic industry by promoting the high-quality development of photovoltaic power generation, and maintain a reasonable development scale and development pace of the photovoltaic industry. Further improve the construction management of photovoltaic power generation. According to the actual development of the industry, the development of photovoltaics in 2019 will be divided into two parts: one is a photovoltaic power generation project that does not require state subsidies, and the other is a photovoltaic power generation project that requires state subsidies. ""

On January 9 this year, the wind power and photovoltaic industry ushered in the first policy of sending price-level Internet access. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the Notice on Actively Promoting Non-subsidized Internet Access for Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation, which is clear and low. Price online projects will not be subject to annual construction scale restrictions.

Li Chuangjun said that for photovoltaic power generation projects that do not require state subsidies, they should be organized and implemented by provincial energy authorities on the premise of meeting the management requirements such as planning and market environment monitoring and evaluation, and implementing conditions such as network access. Enterprises can report to the provincial energy authority for a flat price online project as required, and do not need to report to the National Energy Administration.

Xu Guoxin, deputy director of the Hydropower and Water Resources Planning Institute, said that the "Notice" requires local governments to support land use and land-related charges to avoid unreasonable charges. However, due to the lack of follow-up incentives, the expected results may be discounted. For the first time, the green certificate issued to the parity project has exceeded the previous policy and is expected to be effective. The network connection project, the nearest transaction, and the implementation of the electricity price policy are expected to achieve better results than the historical practice. The consumption policy first proposed to compensate the power-limited electricity by giving priority to the power generation plan, but the operation is a bit complicated and is the focus of follow-up implementation. He said that in 2020, photovoltaic power plants in most parts of the country can achieve unsubsidized parity online.

"For photovoltaic power generation projects that require state subsidies, in addition to the special support projects of the national policy, in principle, market-based competition should be adopted to determine construction projects and subsidy standards. Specific policies, at present, our Energy Bureau is working with relevant departments to study as soon as possible. Introduced." Li Chuangjun revealed.

It is reported that on January 22, the price department of the National Development and Reform Commission convened the representatives of more than a dozen PV companies for the second time to listen to the draft electricity price policy. The upper limit electricity prices for centralized power stations in the three types of resource areas are 0.4 yuan/kWh, 0.45 yuan/kWh, and 0.55 yuan/kWh. The bidding ceiling price of the ground power station will retreat according to the quarter, but the extent of the retreat will be smaller, with 0.01 yuan per quarter, and will be implemented in the second quarter after the policy is issued. Industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic, "spontaneous self-use, surplus electricity online" project subsidies according to the total power of 0.1 yuan to 0.12 yuan (possibly according to the lower limit of 0.1 yuan), subsidy standards are also retired quarterly, 0.01 yuan per quarter; clear household distribution The separate electricity price policy for photovoltaics is subsidized according to the total power generation of 0.15 yuan to 0.18 yuan (possibly according to the upper limit of 0.18 yuan), while the electricity price does not fall back and remains unchanged throughout the year.

"Upper and cold" integrated speed

"The prospects for the PV market in 2019 are relatively optimistic. At present, the international installed market is forming a blooming situation." Wang Bohua, vice chairman and secretary general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, judged.

It is understood that while the domestic market is adjusting, the EU has come to an end for the "double opposition" of China for five years. 2018 total exports of photovoltaic products (wafers, cells, components) 16.11 billion US dollars, the highest level is the double reverse, an increase of 10.9%. China has more than 20 photovoltaic enterprises through joint ventures, mergers and acquisitions, investment, etc. in overseas distribution of production capacity, mainly in Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and other countries.

"The Chinese market is relatively optimistic. Current development, China remains a policy-oriented market, of course, the world, too, for the industrial development of the impact of policy is very great. Even after the real grid parity, we still need policy support . "Wang Bohua expects 2019 domestic PV installed capacity at 35GW added to 45GW.

The PV InfoLink research report pointed out that although it seems that the first quarter of 2019 may not be weak, but this year, China's domestic demand is more concentrated in the second half of the year, and overseas markets such as Europe and the United States usually have better demand in the second half of the year. demand should be presented on a cold hot trend, currently expected to usher in the lunar new year will continue to demand a lighter point this year, when the whole supply chain, from silicon components are still expected decline in value occurs. In particular the component side, even though demand in the second half warmed, or may not be obvious if the upstream.

Wang Bohua believes that the current market demand and subsidy arrears are not coordinated. It is estimated that the PV gap will exceed 60 billion yuan in 2018. At the same time, there is also an inconsistency between steady growth and industry consolidation. The current production capacity is growing and staged. The tendency of excess, the industry needs to be integrated to achieve healthy and sustainable development. The integration of the photovoltaic industry will become the focus of future development. Enterprises queue up for IPOs and continue to rely on capital market financing. Once successful, the funds raised will drive continued capacity expansion and industry consolidation.

He judged that the new polysilicon production capacity will continue to be released in 2019, the cost of silicon materials in the central and eastern regions will be phased out, and the industrial layout will further concentrate in the western region; in terms of silicon wafers, the four giants of Longji, Zhonghuan, GCL and Jingke will appear. And with the increasing capacity of high-efficiency batteries, downstream requirements for wafer quality are increasing, which increases barriers to entry for monocrystalline silicon wafers.

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