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Special analyst Zhang Liqun believes: Following the fall in April, the PMI index was flat in May and remained above the glory line for 10 consecutive months, indicating that the economic growth is further clear. The index of the order category increased or remained, indicating that the domestic and international market demand was generally stable; the price index continued to fall, indicating that the market supply and demand gap is closing faster; the finished goods inventory index fell, the raw material inventory index increased, indicating that inventory adjustment activities stabilized; production index The decline in production activity expectation index rose, indicating that production activities have stabilized. Comprehensive research and judgment, economic growth is shifting from a short-term high to a steady trend.
The new order index was 52.3%, unchanged from the previous month. In terms of firm size, the new order indices for large, medium and small companies are both above 50%, at 52.7%, 52.2% and 50.9% respectively.
The new export order index was 50.7%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of enterprise scale, the new export orders index of large and small enterprises is higher than 50%, which is 50.9% and 51.8%, respectively; medium-sized enterprises are located at 50%.
The backlog index was 45.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of firm size, the backlog index of large, medium and small enterprises is below 50%, which is 45.4%, 45.8% and 44.8% respectively.
The finished goods inventory index was 46.6%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of enterprise scale, the inventory index of finished products of large, medium and small enterprises was lower than 50%, which were 46.8%, 45.7% and 48.0% respectively.
The purchase volume index was 51.5%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of enterprise scale, the purchasing volume index of large, medium and small enterprises is higher than 50%, which are 52.2%, 50.7% and 50.2% respectively.
The import index was 50.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of enterprise scale, the import index of large enterprises is higher than 50%, which is 51.2%; for medium and small enterprises, it is lower than 50%, which is 48.4% and 44.4% respectively.
The purchase price index was 49.5%, down 2.3 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of enterprise scale, the purchase price index of large enterprises is less than 50%, which is 48.4%; for medium and small enterprises, it is higher than 50%, which is 50.7% and 51.5% respectively.
The ex-factory price index was 47.6%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of enterprise scale, the ex-factory price indices of large, medium and small enterprises are all below 50%, which are 46.9%, 48.1% and 49.9% respectively.
The raw material inventory index was 48.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of enterprise scale, raw material inventory indices of large, medium and small enterprises are all below 50%, accounting for 48.9%, 48.1% and 48.2% respectively.
The employee index was 49.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of enterprise scale, the index of employees of large and medium-sized enterprises is lower than 50%, which is 49.0% and 49.4% respectively; for small enterprises, it is higher than 50%, which is 50.9%.
The supplier's delivery time index was 50.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of enterprise scale, the distribution time index of suppliers for large and medium-sized enterprises is higher than 50%, which is 50.4% and 50.6%, respectively; for small enterprises, it is lower than 50%, which is 48.8%.
The expected index of production and operation activities was 56.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of enterprise scale, the expected indices of production and operation activities of large, medium and small enterprises are all higher than 50%, which are 57.4%, 56.3% and 55.0% respectively.
2. The scope of the survey involved 31 industry categories in the manufacturing sector of the National Economic Industry Classification (GB/T4754-2011) and 3,000 survey samples.
3. Survey Method Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Survey uses the PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, which is based on the major categories of the manufacturing industry. The sample size of the industry is allocated according to the added value of the added value of the manufacturing industry. The probabilities of the main business income are proportionally drawn.
The survey was organized and implemented by the investigation team directly under the National Bureau of Statistics. The national statistical network direct reporting system was used to conduct a monthly questionnaire survey on the enterprise procurement manager.
4. Calculation Method Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Questionnaire relates to production volume, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase volume, import, purchase price, ex-factory price, raw material inventory, employees, supplier delivery time, production Business activities are expected to wait for 13 questions. The diffusion index is calculated separately for each question, which is the percentage of the number of companies that are responding positively plus half of the percentage of the answer. The ex-factory price index was released in January 2017.
PMI is a composite index calculated by weighting five diffusion indices (classification indices). The five sub-indices and their weights are based on their prior impact on the economy. Specifically, it includes: new order index, weight is 30%; production index, weight is 25%; employee index, weight is 20%; supplier delivery time index, weight is 15%; raw material inventory index, weight It is 10%. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is the inverse index, and the inverse operation is performed when synthesizing the PMI composite index.
5. Seasonal Adjustment The Purchasing Manager Survey is a monthly survey that is subject to seasonal factors and has a large fluctuation in data. The PMI composite index and each sub-index released today are seasonally adjusted data. Since January 2017, the seasonal adjustment method for the expected index of production and operation activities has been improved, and historical data has been revised.
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In May, the manufacturing PMI was 51.2.
Abstract China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May 2017, released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics' Service Industry Research Center, was 51.2%, unchanged from the previous month. From the perspective of 13 sub-indices, compared with the previous month, the export order index, product...
China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May 2017, released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics' Service Industry Research Center, was 51.2%, unchanged from the previous month. From the 13 sub-indices, compared with the previous month, the export order index, backlog index, raw material inventory index, employee index, production activity expectation index increased slightly, the new order index was unchanged from the previous month, and the other seven indexes were all There has been a decline. In the decline index, the finished goods inventory index, raw material purchase price index, and ex-factory price index fell by more than 1 percentage point, and the remaining four indexes fell by less than 1 percentage point.