In the second half of September, the national average glass price showed a general increase. According to our monitoring area (the percentage in brackets indicates the average price of white glass in each region), there are 7 areas that are rising: Shenyang (+0.80%), Qinhuangdao (+0.09%), Wuhan (+0.03%), Shanghai ( +0.36%), Xi'an (+0.09%), Chengdu (+0.34%), Beijing (+4.33%); Downwards have 1: Guangzhou (-0.04%). The northwestern market was affected by the price increase in the Shahe area of ​​Hebei Province, and the price rose. The sales in the Central China region turned better and the company’s inventory fell. Currently, in the season of strong sales in the northern region, the production and sales of glass enterprises in the northeast are both booming, showing a situation of rising prices. North China was affected by price increases in Hebei Shahe and other regions and downstream demand growth. In the current ten-year period, Beijing’s prices rose rapidly, production companies’ inventories decreased, and one color glass of Qinhuangdao Yaohua was changed to white glass; glass demand in southwest China increased significantly. The prices rose slightly; the market demand in eastern China increased slightly, and the confidence of production companies increased. The differences between South China and North China and Northeast China have been relatively stable recently, and prices of some enterprises have even declined slightly.

Inventory level: inventory decline

The inventory level of 280 float glass production lines in the country fell in late September compared with the previous month, with a total volume of 26.88 million weight boxes, a drop of 350,000 weight boxes, a decrease of 1.29% from the previous month, an increase of 1.97% year-on-year in inventory levels, and the entry of glass in the second half of last year. Due to the harsh environment, stocks dropped sharply before comparison.

Cost terminal heavy oil and soda ash prices: soda ash prices fell slightly

As of September 28, North China fell 33 yuan / ton to 1,417 yuan / ton; East China remained unchanged at 1400 yuan / ton, South China remained unchanged 1,500 yuan / ton; Central China fell 5 yuan / ton to 1375 yuan / Ton; southwest down 8 yuan / ton to 1492 yuan / ton.

Capacity Status (Additional Ignition, Cold Repair, Discontinued Production)

The cold repair production line for this ten days, the cold repair line production capacity 17940T/D; discontinued production lines 27 remain unchanged, production capacity 111400/D; add two lines in the current ten days, Hebei Shahe Xinli glass four-wire 800T/D and Qinghai Yaohua Jinding Glass 600T/D, the rate of kiln shutdown decreased to 19.5% due to new capacity, and it needs to continue to be alert to new capacity.

Investment rating

Glass manufacturing index rose 0.47%, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 4.42%, underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. Glass manufacturing industry price-earnings ratio (overall method, TTM, negative value) 26.53 times, PB (global law, remove negative value) 2.08 times. At present, the current high of the cycle inventory has emerged, the gross profit low point has continued to rise slowly, and a new round of the glass industry cycle will begin this year. We don't think we have to be too pessimistic about the glass industry, and we must keep a close eye on the changes in the demand side. In the recent month, driven by the demand season in the north, the national glass prices have been increasing. We believe that there is still room for further price increases in the later period. However, the pressure of cold production capacity pressure has been inhibited. We believe there is a “ceiling” in the rise. , maintain the industry's "overweight" rating, it is recommended to pay attention to the glass industry with cost advantages and technological advantages of glass deep processing, low valuation of the company, it is recommended to focus on: Fang Xing Technology (Buy rating), Qi Bin Group (overweight rating) , Yaopi (overweight rating) and CSG A (overweight rating).