The gradual entry into the winter in the northern regions will also enter the demand off-season, and the steel mills will resume production, but the cost support is also showing. As the long products market is affected by seasonal factors, the sheet metal industry gradually becomes more stable in the manufacturing environment. Fortunately, it is expected that the short-term domestic steel market will maintain slight fluctuations, and the pattern of strong plates and long products will be weak.

According to the Lange Steel Information Research Center weekly price forecasting model data, this week (2012.11.12-11.16) domestic steel market prices will rise slightly, the long products market will decline slightly, and the plate market price will stabilize slightly higher. The Lange Steel Composite Index is expected to fluctuate around 150.2 points, the average price of steel is around 3900 yuan, and the average fluctuation range is around 20-30 yuan. Lange Steel's long product index is expected to fluctuate around 165.4 points, a slight decline of around 0.6 points; The Lange Steel Plate Index is expected to fluctuate around 131.0 points, a slight increase of around 1.2 points.

From the Lange Steel Information Research Center market survey, it is expected that this week (2012.11.12-11.16) domestic long products market prices will decline slightly, while the plate market prices will be slightly higher steady; raw material market prices will vary. The market price of iron ore and billets will remain basically stable, coke market prices will rise by a small margin of 30-50 yuan, and the market price of scrap steel will decline steadily by 100 yuan.

1. Slight fluctuations in the domestic steel market this week rose in the 45th week of 2012 (11.5-11.9) The Lange Steel (LGMI) Composite Price Index reached 149.6 points, a week-on-month increase of 0.72%, and a decrease of 13.20% from the same period of last year. Among them, the LGMI long products price index was 166.0 points, a week-on-month increase of 0.03%, a decrease of 15.31% over the same period of last year; LGMI sheet price index was 129.8 points, a week-on-week increase of 1.80%, a decrease of 9.75% over the same period last year.

According to the price data of 17 categories of 44 standard varieties monitored by the market of Lange Steel Information Research Center in the market, the market price of major steel products fluctuates slightly in the 45th week (11.5-11.9) of 2012. Slightly decreased, the flat variety increased slightly, and the falling variety increased slightly. Among them, 17 varieties rose, 4 kinds decreased compared with last week; 14 types were flat, increased by 1 compared with the previous week; 13 varieties decreased, increased by 3 kinds compared with last week. The domestic iron and steel raw materials market prices have mixed, iron ore and scrap market prices have remained stable, coke market prices have risen by 70-150 yuan, and billet market prices have dropped by 10-30 yuan.

2. This week, the national steel stock market slowed down slightly. At present, the nation's steel stocks have been continuously declining. The decline in the stock of building materials has slowed down slightly, and the rate of decline in sheet stocks has accelerated slightly. According to market monitoring by Lange Steel Information Research Center, on November 9th, steel society stocks in 29 key cities nationwide were 12,279,500 tons, a decrease of 217,900 tons from the previous week. From the point of view of the sub-variety: the country's wire rod social inventories was 1,004,300 tons, down 2.29% from last week; rebar, social inventories was 4,522,300 tons, up 0.12% over the previous week; Panluo social inventory was 264,500 tons, Compared with the previous week, it dropped by 6.04%; the social volume of hot-rolled coils was 3,454,800 tons, down by 3.95% from last week; the volume of cold-rolled coils society was 1,585,900 tons, down by 0.72% from last week; the plate's social inventory The amount was 1,447,800 tons, a decrease of 1.89% from last week.

3. This week, the steel market fluctuates within a narrow range. In the 45th week of 2012 (11.5-11.9), the market for rebar and ferrous alloys oscillated in a narrow range, and the weakness of the market became increasingly precarious. The settlement price of this week fell by 36 points, but in fact, from the settlement price point of view, the settlement price this week was only 5 points lower than last week, basically in a price range. This week, the main contract was 1.07 million contracts, an increase of 123,000 contracts. The 1305 contract continued to enlarge Masukura for two consecutive weeks. It showed the enthusiasm for funding for the thread, and it also brewed the emergence of some medium-level prices.

4. Concern about the recent factors affecting steel prices Macroeconomics:

In October, the non-manufacturing PMI rose by 1.8 percentage points. On November 3, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the October 2012 non-manufacturing business activity index in China. The data show that in October, China Non-manufacturing PMI was 55.5%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous quarter. In addition to the index, the new orders and practitioners index continued its stable trend, and the business activity expected index increased by a significant quarter-on-quarter, reaching 63.4%. The data changes show that the non-manufacturing economy has a good development trend and the growth rate has accelerated.

In October, the overall level of consumer prices rose by 1.7% year-on-year

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in October, the national consumer price level rose by 1.7% year-on-year. Among them, cities rose 1.8%, rural areas rose 1.5%; food prices rose 1.8%, non-food prices rose 1.7%; consumer goods prices rose 1.5%, service prices rose 2.3%. From January to October, the national consumer price level rose by 2.7% over the same period of last year. In October, the national consumer price level fell by 0.1% in the first quarter. Among them, cities fell by 0.1%, rural areas fell by 0.1%; food prices fell by 0.8%; non-food prices rose by 0.3%; consumer goods prices fell by 0.2%, and service item prices rose by 0.2%.

In October, the national industrial producer’s factory price fell by 2.8% year-on-year

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in October, the factory prices of industrial producers nationwide fell by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. The purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 3.3% year-on-year and rose by 0.1% from the previous month. From January to October, the ex-factory price of industrial producers fell by 1.6% year-on-year, and the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 1.7% year-on-year. Among the producer prices of industrial producers, the price of means of production fell by 3.7% year-on-year, of which the price of extractive industries fell by 6.4%, the price of raw materials industry decreased by 3.4%, and the price of processing industries decreased by 3.5%. The price of living materials rose by 0.2% year-on-year, of which, food prices rose by 0.3%, clothing prices rose by 1.6%, general commodity prices rose by 0.5%, and durable consumer goods prices fell by 1.0%. Among the purchase prices of industrial producers, the price of ferrous materials decreased by 11.4% year-on-year, that of chemical raw materials decreased by 5.7%, that of non-ferrous metal materials and wires decreased by 3.1%, that of textile raw materials decreased by 2.2%, and that of fuel power declined. 1.5%.

National fixed asset investment increased by 20.7% from January to October

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October, the country's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 292,542 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 20.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the first nine months. From a month-on-month basis, fixed-asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 1.94% in October.

In terms of sub-industries, from January to October, the first industry invested 743.7 billion yuan, an increase of 32.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than that in the first nine months; the second industry investment was 1287.5 billion yuan, an increase of 21.9%, and the growth rate was one. -September fell by 0.5%; Third-party investment reached 156,319 billion yuan, an increase of 20.1%. The growth rate was 0.7 percentage points higher than that in the first nine months of the year. In the secondary industry, industrial investment was 1,258.3 billion yuan, an increase of 21.9 percent, and the growth rate fell by 0.6 percentage points from January to September. Among them, the mining industry invested 1005.7 billion yuan, an increase of 14.7 percent, and the growth rate fell by 2.7 percentage points; manufacturing investment 1018.8 billion yuan, an increase of 23.1%, the growth rate dropped by 0.4 percentage points; electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry investment 13437 billion yuan, an increase of 18.6%, the growth rate fell 0.5 percentage points.

In October, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 9.6% year-on-year

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in October, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 9.6% year-on-year (the growth rate of the following added value is the real growth rate of deducting price factors), which is 0.4% faster than that in September. From a month-on-month perspective, the value added of industries above designated size increased by 0.81% from the previous month in October. From January to October, the industrial added value of above-scale industries increased by 10.0% year-on-year.

In terms of sub-industries, in October, the value added of 41 major categories of industries all increased year-on-year. Among them, the textile industry increased by 11.9%, the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing increased by 11.9%, the non-metallic mineral products industry increased by 11.0%, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 12.6%, the general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.1%, the automobile manufacturing industry. Growth of 5.9%, manufacturing of railways, ships, aerospace and other transportation equipment increased by 6.1%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing increased by 7.9%, production of computers, communications and other electronic equipment increased by 10.1%, production and supply of electricity and heat The industry grew by 4.7%.

Industry News:

Shandong steel industry restructuring was adjusted to six major corporations before 2015. According to the website of the National Development and Reform Commission, as a pilot region for carrying out structural adjustments in the steel industry, Shandong Province will conduct a large-scale reorganization of steel companies. According to the objectives set by the structural adjustment, by 2015, iron and steel enterprises will be reorganized from the current 21 to the six major steel groups by 2015. The total steel production capacity will be adjusted from the current 63.07 million tons to 50 million tons, and the proportion of coastal steel will be increased by 43%. . The merger and reorganization of enterprises is an important part of Shandong's steel structure adjustment pilot. On November 1st, "Shandong Iron & Steel (Group) Co., Ltd. merger and reorganization plan" was promulgated. In addition to the core Shandong Steel Group, Shandong will also establish five regional iron and steel enterprise groups in Zibo, Weifang, Laiwu, Linyi and Binzhou.

Crude steel production fell by 5.4% in the last quarter of October

According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, the average daily output of crude steel for major and medium-sized enterprises in late October was 15.195 million tons, which was a decrease of 86,600 tons from the previous month and a decrease of 5.4% from the previous month. In the second half of October, the country’s crude steel production was estimated to be 21.183 million tons, and the average daily output was 1.926 million tons, a decrease of 73,000 tons from the mid-term and a 3.7% decrease from the previous month. The data also showed that the average daily output of crude steel in the month of October was 1.658 million tons, which was an increase of 1.4% from September.

The Ministry of Commerce decided to impose anti-dumping duties on imports of relevant high-performance stainless steel seamless pipes originating in the European Union and Japan. On November 8, the Ministry of Commerce issued the 72nd bulletin of 2012, which announced the final results of the anti-dumping case of relevant high-performance stainless steel seamless pipes. It is decided that from November 9, 2012, anti-dumping duties of 9.2% to 14.4% will be imposed on imports of these products originating in the European Union and Japan, with an implementation period of five years. After investigation, the investigation authority finally ruled that during the investigation period of this case, there was dumping of the product under investigation, and the relevant high performance stainless steel seamless steel pipe industry in China was substantially damaged, and there was a causal relationship between dumping and substantial damage. In view of this, the Ministry of Commerce decided to impose anti-dumping duties on the above products originating in the EU and Japan starting from November 9, 2012. The Ministry of Commerce conducted an anti-dumping investigation of the above products on September 8, 2011, and issued a preliminary announcement on May 8, 2012, which confirmed that there was dumping in the investigated products.

The last day of the thread ** 9 closing up the main contract rose 0.52%

The rebar main 1305 contract was opened at 3,640 yuan/ton in the morning on the 9th, and then the price showed an intraday volatility downtrend throughout the day. It was the lowest in the day at 3,628 yuan/ton and the highest at 3,673 yuan/ton, and it was closed at 3,640 yuan/ton. On the previous trading day (8th), the settlement price rose by RMB 19/t, and the transaction volume reached 2,328,602. The open interest amounted to 1,070,130 contracts, an increase of 10,862 contracts.

Downstream demand:

Railway Investment in Fixed Assets Decreased by 0.9% from the Previous Month of October

According to statistics from the Ministry of Railways, from January to October, the national railway fixed asset investment was 425.169 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%. Among them, the national railway infrastructure investment reached 361.816 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%.

According to statistics from the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development, from January to October, a total of 7.22 million sets of newly-built urban housing security projects were completed, and basically 505 million units were completed, and an investment of 1,080 billion yuan was completed. According to the plan, this year, more than 7 million sets of urban housing projects will be newly built in cities, and basically 5 million units will be built.

From January to October, the national sales of home appliances to the countryside exceeded 60 million units. According to statistics from the Ministry of Commerce, from January to October, 65.22 million units of home appliances sold nationwide (excluding Shandong, Henan, Sichuan, and Qingdao) achieved sales. 175.24 billion yuan, calculated on a comparable basis, increased by 23.5% and 18.8% year-on-year respectively. Among them, in October, the country sold 7.91 million home appliances to the countryside, achieving sales of 21.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.5% and 26.0%. As of the end of October 2012, the country has sold 283 million home appliances to rural areas and achieved sales of 681.1 billion yuan.

China's Real Estate Development Investment Increases by 15.4% from January to October

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October, the investment in real estate development in the country totaled 5,769,900 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, which was the same as the growth rate from January to September. Among them, residential investment was 3,974.0 billion yuan, an increase of 10.8%, and the growth rate was increased by 0.3 percentage points, accounting for 68.9% of the total investment in real estate development.

From January to October, the housing construction area of ​​real estate development enterprises was 538.149 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, and the growth rate was 0.7 percentage points lower than that of the first nine months. Among them, the residential construction area was 403.203 million square meters, an increase of 10.9%. The area of ​​new housing starts was 1,476.92 million square meters, down by 8.5%, and the decline was down by 0.1 percentage point from January to September. Among them, the newly-started residential area was 1,0839.96 million square meters, down by 12.7%. The area of ​​completed buildings was 58.317 million square meters, an increase of 17.3%, and the growth rate was increased by 0.9%. Among them, the area of ​​residential buildings completed was 476.92 million square meters, an increase of 17.1%.