This year's demand for photovoltaic cells in the downstream has greatly increased, which is an important reason for the rising value of polysilicon.

Recently, the growth of polysilicon is fierce. Recently, the domestic spot price has risen above US$70/kg, and industry insiders are expected to increase to US$100/kg by the end of the year. People can not help thinking about the sky-high price of 500 USD/kg in 2008. Will the price be repeated? What is the impact on the industry and how is polysilicon going forward?

In this regard, the newspaper was informed that polysilicon this round of gains from the bottom of the end of last year, 50 US dollars / kg rebound, but due to domestic production capacity is still surplus, the short-term stimulation of demand can not be sustained, it is expected that polysilicon rose up to six months, or up to 30% The impact on the industry will not be too great. In the long term, polysilicon is replaced by new materials such as track films.

Temporarily pick up long-term or bearish

According to industry sources, the domestic spot price of polysilicon has exceeded 70 US dollars. An executive from a large domestic polysilicon producer confirmed to the media that “according to my understanding, it is not surprising that we should rise above 70 US$. By the end of this year, the spot price of polysilicon will rise above 100 US dollars.” said the above executives. This year, the demand for downstream manufacturers (ie, photovoltaic cells and crystal silicon module manufacturers) has greatly increased. It was originally thought that the European market would experience a sharp contraction in demand due to the reduction of subsidies by Germany and Spain. It now appears that we were overreacted. In fact, the European market demand The volume is still growing, but the growth rate has declined."

When interviewed by Hedu, a director of Guangzhou Taiyang Energy Technology Co., Ltd., He Ping said that this round of increase in polysilicon price was actually a recovery from the previous tragic decline, but it is not expected to go up for a long time. The uptrend will continue for up to six months, or up to 20%. To 30%.

He Ping analysis, in May 2008, polysilicon spot prices soared to 500 US dollars per kilogram, but then fell sharply, at the end of 2009, polysilicon spot prices fell to around 50 US dollars. The recent increase in polysilicon to 70 US dollars / kg, is a rebound from the bottom, but once again rose to hundreds of dollars a kilogram is almost zero. The domestic listed companies that produce polysilicon, such as Wuxi Suntech, have not performed well and the competition in the industry is still fierce.

“Short-term rises are not expected in the medium to long term.” Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, told Nandu that the current round of gains is recoverable, mainly due to short-term factors. First, the European government will cancel subsidies for the solar industry. Related companies rushed to purchase before the cancellation of subsidies, leading to rising demand; secondly, the tender for the second batch of 280 MW photovoltaic power plants in China also stimulated demand. However, in the medium to long term, China's polysilicon production capacity is still a serious surplus, which is why the state will limit the production of polysilicon. But even so, there is no new project put into operation, the original project production capacity is also surplus, "the so-called lack of capacity is wrong."

Polysilicon or phased out

For downstream crystalline silicon and crystalline silicon module manufacturers, the price of raw materials for crystalline silicon has risen, which will adversely affect its performance and gross profit. Hu Xiaoshu, manager of strategic marketing at Zhejiang Zhengtai Solar Energy Technology Co., Ltd., said in an interview with the media that the company is suffering from cost pressures caused by rising prices of raw silicon raw materials. If polysilicon continues to rise, the entire industry may enter a difficult period in the first half of next year, but this period will not be very long.

However, from the circumstances of the newspaper's interview, polysilicon's rally is expected to last until the end of the year and will not continue until next year. Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, believes that next year and even the following year, polysilicon will not rise, and the country will continue to limit the industry's production capacity.

Not only that, new technology and new materials are likely to replace polysilicon. He Ping, a director of Guangzhou Taiyang Energy Technology Co., Ltd., told Nandu that polysilicon is still a high-pollution, high-energy-consumption product with low conversion rate and resource consumption and is bound to be phased out. Silicon-based thin films that have already emerged have a much higher conversion rate and will be the future direction. Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, also said that new technologies in the new energy field are developing rapidly. Once new technology breakthroughs, polysilicon will no longer be the mainstream.

In fact, at present, some companies in the industry have begun to transition and they are no longer using polysilicon or using them as raw materials. Xinao Group's spokesperson for the solar energy source told Nandu that the company's solar power generation components use silicon-based films instead of polysilicon.

Is there excess or excess capacity of the disputed polysilicon?

There are two voices in the industry regarding this round of polysilicon price gains. One is that domestic capacity is insufficient and prices will rise; the other is that, with excess capacity, the gains are not sustainable. Whether or not the polysilicon production capacity is surplus is the key to judgment, but the controversy still has no conclusion.

In September 2009, the central government issued a notice that it believes that polysilicon has excess capacity. When Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center of Xiamen University, and Ni Weidou, director of the Science and Technology Committee of the Ministry of Education, interviewed Nandu reporters, they all felt that the industry had excess production capacity, excessively low-level redundant construction, and most enterprises relied on eating government subsidies, and the actual benefits were poor.

However, domestic high-quality polysilicon still relies heavily on imports. According to industry insiders, the “overcapacity theory” is based on planning production capacity, which is far from actual production. This aspect is related to the relatively long construction and production technology cycle of the polysilicon project. On the other hand, due to process and technology reasons, planned production capacity may not be able to form actual output.

Li Junfeng, deputy director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said in an interview with the media that the government’s judgment on the excess capacity of the polysilicon industry is actually controlling the low-level redundant construction of the new energy industry, and it still supports the high-level production capacity. The biggest problem in domestic polysilicon production is that key technologies and equipment are still not fully mastered.