PV industry excess capacity will appear new trends

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On November 12, He Yongjian, deputy director of the Development and Planning Department of the National Energy Administration, said in an interview with the media that with the increase in installed capacity, the pressure on electricity price subsidies is also very high. It will consider limiting the ceiling on electricity price subsidies and guiding the rational development of the industry. All installed capacity can be supported through subsidies, which imposes higher requirements on the technological advancement and cost reduction of photovoltaic companies. As for the specific amount of the subsidy limit, it must be determined according to the needs of market development.

Xiao Zhong, a research fellow of China Investment Advisor New Energy Industry Group, believes that the related policies of the photovoltaic industry have been basically completed, and relevant documents with detailed, guiding, and knowable implementation will be gradually promulgated and implemented, and multiple problems that restrict industrial development will be effectively solved. The optimization of production capacity and structural adjustment will enter a new stage. The excess production capacity of upstream polysilicon and midstream photovoltaic modules will be partially eliminated or digested, while the downstream PV power stations will experience a full-scale surplus. Can the “toxic attack” treatment achieve results? Not yet known. However, government agencies, photovoltaic industry, and photovoltaic giants seem to be fully prepared, and the next wave of vigorous investment in photovoltaic projects will come earlier.

Before the overcapacity of the photovoltaic industry was mainly concentrated in the upper and middle reaches, the construction of photovoltaic power plants in the downstream segment lags behind, and the export volume of photovoltaic products remains high until the foreign market has fully contracted after the “double reaction”, and relevant departments and photovoltaic giants will focus on Turn to China. The construction of photovoltaic power plants has become the most important means of digesting inventory and boosting the market. Despite the low efficiency of grid connection and weak profitability, the speed of approval of photovoltaic projects has accelerated. The launch of the photovoltaic base is still in line with the basic characteristics of China's solar energy resource concentration and the agglomeration of the power industry. The vigorous promotion of distributed photovoltaics will not only help companies digest inventories, but will also further aggravate grid connection problems. Enterprises and investors all know that the solution to grid-connected problems is not a single day. It involves many stakeholders such as power grid companies, local governments, and related departments. Blindly pushing PV power plants will inevitably generate relative surplus of photovoltaic power plants. Different from the "drinking and quenching thirst" type of therapy.

However, there are currently no laws and regulations to restrict the photovoltaic industry. As an important part of the strategic emerging industries, the enthusiasm of local governments and photovoltaic companies for the construction of photovoltaic power stations is unusually high, and the development goals set in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” will be gradually distributed to local governments. The government has no technical problems in achieving the total target of installed capacity. Once all the problems of the photovoltaic industry are concentrated in the downstream power stations, the industrial chain is even more fragile. If the power station's grid connection and funding subsidies cannot be followed in a timely manner, the entire industry may be completely collapsed, and more photovoltaic companies will be bankrupted and restructured.

The photovoltaic industry is the same, and so is the wind power industry. If the approval authority for photovoltaic projects is delegated to local governments, there will be a new round of “Great Leap Forward” in the photovoltaic industry. Before the power reform work fails to achieve results, the photovoltaic power plants will still revert to the old path of polysilicon. A new round of overcapacity will replace the previous overcapacity, the photovoltaic giants will rise, and the photovoltaic powers will get farther and farther.

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Zhoushan Jinmao Machinery Manufacturing Factory , https://www.jinmao-machinery.com