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Shanghai aluminum price dilemma
The recent rise in the price of alumina has caused the aluminum aluminum stocks to fall into a very limited space. Shanghai aluminum prices have a dilemma. On Monday, the Shanghai aluminum main contract AL0406 opened at 16,780 yuan. After abutting 16840 yuan, it fell back to close at 16,720 yuan, a slight drop of 20 yuan. The news from Chinese traders shows that compared with the previous month, the price of imported alumina has recently risen by at least US$10 per ton, and the quoted price of spot alumina shipped to Chinese ports has fluctua- tively fluctuating from US$460 to US$470 per ton. It is 450 US dollars / ton. In the previous period, due to the impact of the traditional Chinese New Year holiday in China, the import of alumina dropped month-on-month, which led to a decrease in China's port inventories, which supported the firming of alumina prices. The manufacturer predicted that the spot alumina price in the first half of the year would increase to US$500 and the price of alumina in the short-term. The rising expectation has enabled the market to form an effective support for Shanghai Aluminum prices. China's newer import and export data show that in the first two months of this year, China's total exports of electrolytic aluminum and alloys were as high as 132,677 tons, far higher than the 60,664 tons in the same period of last year. It is evident that Chinese exporters of electrolytic aluminum are still very active. The market expects that China may further raise the export tax on electrolytic aluminum, and the export tax on electrolytic aluminum may increase to 20% later in the year, which will put domestic aluminum prices under pressure again. From a technical point of view, Shanghai Aluminum Co., Ltd. obtained support at the 30-day moving average and will follow copper price volatility in the later period. Due to the possibility that Shanghai copper may still be squeezed in the short term, the Shanghai aluminum price is still expected to rise slightly, but the pressure near 17,000 yuan is heavy. It is advisable for investors to wait and see.