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Shida Copper and Aluminum Weekly Review (8.9-13)
Shida Copper and Aluminum Weekly Review (8.9-13) Copper: Ups and downs, the decline has not happened since the recent copper price and the US dollar's trend has been broken, Lun Copper once again lost in confusion. This week, Lonco copper rose sharply on Monday to US$2,718/tonne and stabilized. Shanghai copper closed at Friday's prices, and the March period price was near 2,760 US dollars/ton. Shanghai copper performed relatively strong, with its relative March ratio basically at 9.4. Between -9.55, the premium between the contracts continued to expand, and the spot price was higher than 3,000 yuan/ton for the relative rise in March. The volatility of copper prices has not yet been broken. It can be seen from the response of the following copper market to the main data and events in the past week that if copper prices continue to rise further, it looks weak. (1) The number of non-farm payrolls for the United States in July was only increased by 32,000 in July, and the figure for June was revised downwards to 78,000. The U.S. dollar has experienced a significant decline, while London Copper is unmoved. It was a sharp drop on Monday, mainly due to selling caused by worries about the US economy. (2) This week’s more important event is undoubtedly the Fed’s interest rate decision meeting on Tuesday. On August 10, the Fed raised the US federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1.5%. For the market, what is more important is the Fed's evaluation of the U.S. economy. The difference between the FOMC's post-meeting statement and June 30th focuses on two aspects. First, "The output in recent months The slowdown in the growth of the labor market may be mainly caused by the soaring oil prices. Second, "the economic vitality will recover at a more robust pace." This week's performance of the London copper market can be seen that it is already at a relatively high level, making the market cautious about the copper market's demand and price increase. If the U.S. economic results of the latter period are as evaluated by the Federal Reserve, and the copper market is in favor of the medium term, the market's response seems to be rather sluggish. The sharp fall on Monday can also be seen as a lag in digesting employment data on Friday. In the long-term, copper prices higher than the long-term price regions have a downward regressive demand, but it seems unlikely in the short term. By this Friday, LME copper stocks had dropped to 80,700 tons. Therefore, in the short term, the price of copper is still treated in a turbulent manner. The resistance above the copper is 2780 and 2860 U.S. dollars per ton, and the price below is 2700 and 2650 U.S. dollars per ton. Shanghai aluminum rebounded after being blocked Shanghai Aluminum apparently rebounded last week. The strength mainly comes from the following aspects: (1) Increase in exports, which is a phenomenon that persists from late June, but it has accumulated to the current market attention. (2) The drop in alumina prices of Chinalco eliminates an uncertain element of bearish aluminum prices. (3) Insufficient capacity caused shortage in the spot market. (4) Trader's psychological work during rebound. In the process of rising prices, it is even more apparent that sellers are reluctant to sell and purchase buyers are buying more, and prices are rising. This week, the aluminum price rose gradually sluggish. Although the spot premium continued to rise, the exchange stocks fell by 5,603 tons, but the resistance is quite obvious. The main 0411 contract reached a high of 15,660 yuan / ton, closing at 15,540 yuan / ton. First of all, the news that the continuous production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has started again has caused renewed concerns about spot supply. The rebound in alumina prices began to reflect the expansion of production. Second, when the price rebounded to a certain extent, the supplier's attitude of reluctant sellers began to dilute. Consumers already had some stocks in their hands. When the price was under pressure, the willingness to purchase was not as strong as before. The spot premium over the month of futures also increased the selling pressure on the spot market. Although exports will ease the pressure on Shanghai Aluminum, the room for price rebound in the short term is still quite limited. Compared with the resistance at the top of March of 15,600 and 15,800 yuan/ton. In the international market, there is still good news. In July, the output of primary aluminum in the United States decreased by 7.4% year-on-year to 208,600 tons. The output of primary aluminum in Canada decreased by 10.7% from the same period of last year to 21.16 million tons. In May, the output of aluminum processing products in Japan increased; LME aluminum stocks fell below 800,000 tons (79,860 tons). This may be the main reason why aluminum prices rose independently in the latter part of the week. When other metals were in the doldrums, Lun Aluminum seems to have more reasons and room for growth. However, similarly, due to the limited upside of other metals, Shanghai Aluminum also faces strong resistance at 1720, 1750 USD/t.