The latest issue of the Bohai Steam Coal Price Index announced by Hainan CoalNet on the 19th was 633 yuan per ton, which was 3 yuan per ton higher than the price of the previous period, and rose by 0.48% on a week-to-week basis, but still dropped by 24% year-on-year.

Since the end of August, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Sea has started to rebound, and it has risen for four consecutive years. The single-week increase in the coal price has increased from RMB 1 per ton to RMB 2 and RMB 3 in the previous two weeks, showing signs of a recovery in the market.

Coal industry analyst Guan Dali believes that the inventory of power plants on the downstream coast has fallen, and the output of hydropower has also shown a declining trend. The demand for thermal power generation has increased and the willingness of power plants to bring coal to ports has continued. Therefore, the current port market activity has increased more than the previous period. The price has basically stopped falling, and prices of some varieties have rebounded slightly.

Guanda Li expects that under the influence of a series of factors such as the maintenance of Daqin Line and winter coal preparation in the later period, coal prices will not be expected to drop again. However, taking into account the high inventory of power plants in the 20 days or so, and the slow growth of industrial electricity demand, the price of late coastal thermal coal is unlikely to have a strong performance, and the market may rebound slightly or slightly.

“In addition to the recovery of coal prices in the port, the signs of the stabilization of the coal-producing market in the near future have also become more apparent.” Guan Dali said that in this regard, the self-restricted production of coal enterprises in various parts of the country is still very strong, coupled with safety inspection requirements. Small coal mines in the region are all shut down, and the declining production capacity has slowed the pressure on the market to exceed supply. On the other hand, downstream power plants have consumed a summer, taking into account the proximity to winter storage, there is a certain willingness to make up, the current coal price is low in recent years, but also an important factor to stimulate the slight increase in coal purchases. Considering the overall situation this year, the current market is relatively satisfied that coal prices can be stabilized, and there is not much hope for a rebound. In the later period, the thermal coal market should not have a significant upward trend, and the market is likely to rebound slightly within a certain period of time.

Analyst Zhou Wenhuan of the Beijing Intermediate Research Institute said that the US QE3 policy has a certain stimulating effect on domestic and foreign merchandise. Coupled with the large decline in domestic coal prices in the earlier period, some companies have already reached the production income balance line, and thus adopted measures to limit production and stop production. Affected by this, there may be a possible rebound in domestic coal prices in the short term. However, whether this rebound can continue depends on whether domestic demand in the domestic market can actually recover.