According to the 2012 China Economic Forecast Report released by the Center for Prediction Science of the Chinese Academy of Sciences on the 17th, China’s GDP growth rate was about 8.5% this year. The growth rate of foreign trade dropped significantly year-on-year, and the surplus continued to decline. This year, national housing prices will be transferred to the downtrend channel. The average price of commercial housing is expected to be 5024.4 yuan / square meter, down about 5.3% year-on-year. The annual CPI may increase by 3.6%-4% The report predicts that China's economy will maintain steady growth this year, and the annual GDP growth rate will be around 8.5%. The economic growth will show a low and high trend, and the turning point of the rebound will likely appear in the middle of the year. Investment, consumption and net exports boosted GDP growth by 4.5, 4.3 and -0.3 percentage points respectively. In the first half of this year, China's CPI and PPI will continue to decline. The monetary policy is obviously loose, and the fiscal policy will be more active, which will play an important role in the economic growth rate. It is estimated that the year-on-year CPI will increase by 3.6%-4%. In the first quarter, the biggest increase was seen, and each quarter will show a downward trend. The PPI for the whole year is expected to increase by 3.5%-5%. This year's CPI is generally in the downside range, but a number of rising factors will limit the price decline, and some uncertain factors may trigger price fluctuations. The report believes that China's foreign trade growth rate will drop significantly year-on-year this year. Import growth is faster than exports, and the trade surplus continues to decline. In the absence of serious deterioration of the European debt crisis, China’s total import and export volume is expected to be approximately US$4,147.36 billion this year, with a surplus of approximately US$130 billion. Chen Xikang, deputy director of the Academic Committee of the Center for Prediction Science Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, believes that the decline in exports will make the role of domestic demand in economic growth prominent. Although the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth has risen, it is still below normal. House prices in the first quarter may fall by 10% The report believes that under the influence of factors such as the lack of real estate policy, the further expansion of the property tax collection pilot and the promotion of affordable housing construction, the price increase may fall. It is expected that the housing price control policy will show significant results in the first half of this year, and the residential sales will drop in volume and price, which makes it less likely to further increase regulation. It is expected that the possible decline in the price of residential sales in the third quarter will play a role in driving economic development. The average price of commercial housing this year is expected to be 5024.4 yuan / square meter, down about 5.3% year-on-year. For each quarter, the average price of commercial housing is expected to decline the fastest in the first quarter, down about 10.7% year-on-year, and will increase by 1% in the fourth quarter. The sales area of ​​commercial housing will keep rising this year, and market demand will continue to grow. The growth rate of real estate investment will continue to slow down, and the land acquisition area, new construction area and completed area will show a downward trend. The supply of new commercial housing will be difficult to maintain high growth, but due to the relatively sufficient supply of market stocks, the overall supply and demand situation of the market will still be eased. For the price trend of global commodities, the report believes that both oil and gold prices will continue to rise. Yu Le'an, deputy director of the International Marketing Department of the Center for Prediction Science of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, believes that the rise in oil prices is mainly due to the geopolitical impact of the tension in the Middle East. The intensification of global financial market risks will keep the price of the precious metals futures market high. The report predicts that agricultural futures prices will fall at a high level overall. It is expected that the average price of CBOT wheat, corn and soybeans will fall to 600, 750 and 1200 cents per bushel, down 9% to 15% year-on-year.
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The Chinese Academy of Sciences expects GDP to increase by 8.5% this year. House prices fell by 5.3% year-on-year.
Abstract The 2012 China Economic Forecast Report released by the Center for Prediction Science of the Chinese Academy of Sciences on the 17th believes that China's GDP growth rate will be around 8.5% this year. The growth rate of foreign trade has dropped significantly year-on-year, and the surplus has continued to decline. This year, national housing prices will be transferred to the down channel, and it is expected that commodities will be...