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Some institutional research results believe that the upcoming "12th Five-Year Plan" for steel will mainly focus on the main line of "structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading", which may lead to major adjustments in the industry structure, and the steel industry may face new development opportunities. The "Planning" has determined that the "12th Five-Year" development plan for the steel industry, which has been brewing for a long time, will be released soon. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, for most steel companies, the task is to put product upgrades in the first place, grade and stability as the top priority of product structure adjustment; for a few powerful enterprises, to develop high-end steel products At the same time, prevent the development of high-level homogenization.
According to the Huatai Securities Research Report, the "Planning" specifically identifies six major goals:
The first goal is product upgrades. Product quality should be significantly improved, stability is enhanced, high-strength and high-tough automotive steel, silicon steel sheet and other varieties to achieve large-scale production, the domestic market share of more than 90%; marine corrosion-resistant steel, low-temperature pressure vessel panels and other high-end varieties self-sufficiency rate reached 80%, 400MPa and above rebar use ratio of more than 80%.
The second goal is to save energy and reduce emissions. In the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", the state has determined that the unit energy consumption index is reduced by 16%, and the steel industry is determined to be 18%. At the same time, it is proposed that the average energy consumption per ton of steel should be lower than 580 kg of standard coal.
The third goal is the industrial layout. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the Zhanjiang and Fangchenggang steel bases will be built to fundamentally solve the problem of "Northern Steel South Transportation".
The fourth goal is resource security. Basically establish an iron ore and coal raw fuel guarantee system for benefit sharing, and increase the production capacity of overseas iron ore by 100 million tons.
The fifth goal is technological innovation. The "Plan" proposes to establish a sound technological innovation system, with R&D investment accounting for 1.5% of the main business income, progress in independent innovation technologies such as green low-carbon smelting and comprehensive utilization of resources, and high-efficiency production and energy conservation and emission reduction. Technology is widely used.
The sixth goal is industrial concentration. The proportion of the top 10 steel enterprise group steel production in the national total will increase from 48% to 60%.
Great Wall Securities believes that compared with the previous plan, the “Plan†has increased the forecast of medium and long-term crude steel consumption, and proposed that the peak demand for crude steel appears in 2015-2020, with a peak of about 7.7-8.2 billion tons. In addition, it also puts forward requirements for the transformation of the industry, which will form a short-term positive for the steel industry. Three factors drive domestic market demand Recently, the short-term outlook report released by worldsteel in Paris raised the agency's forecast of steel consumption demand for the world this year and next. The latest forecast shows that global steel consumption will maintain strong growth in 2011, an increase of 6.5%, totaling 1.398 billion tons; in 2012, the growth rate will slow down to 5.4%, totaling 1.474 billion tons. Six months ago, the agency's forecast for the year was 5.9% to 1.359 billion tons in 2011 and 6% to 1.441 billion tons in 2012.
The worldsteel estimates that there will be large differences in steel demand growth in different regions between the next two years, and the recovery in demand in developed countries is slow, while steel demand in most emerging economies and developing countries will continue to grow strongly. In 2012, the proportion of steel demand in emerging economies and developing countries to global steel demand will increase from 61% in 2007 to 73%. China's steel consumption is expected to increase by 7.5% to 643.2 million tons in 2011, and is expected to increase by 6% to 680.6 million tons in 2012.
From the domestic situation, three factors have driven the domestic steel market demand.
First of all, it is driven by the demand for the construction of affordable housing. Construction steel prices remained stable this week, rising and falling. The building materials market performed well, with rebar maintaining the price of 4,297 yuan/ton last week; the current price of the high line was 4,380 yuan/ton, up 0.54%. Plates fell mostly, with hot-rolled and medium-sized plates down 0.38% and 0.77%, respectively, and cold-rolling rose slightly by 3 yuan/ton to 5220 yuan/ton. The demand for affordable housing is expected to make this year's demand for building materials in the off-season. The price of sheet metal fluctuated this week. It can be seen from Baosteel's August ex-factory price policy that sheet prices have stabilized, but the rebound in sheet metal market economy still depends on the recovery of downstream industry indicators.
Secondly, the future development of high-end equipment manufacturing industry will benefit a lot of industries, and the steel industry will also gain obvious benefits. At present, China's aircraft manufacturing industry has achieved remarkable results, driving the future of aviation steel technology and the development of domestic ultra-high-strength steel.
Finally, China's urbanization and industrialization have accelerated, the economic restructuring has accelerated, and the driving force for economic growth in the later period is still strong. The demand for steel in the market is still relatively strong. Among them, in addition to the social housing project, the water conservancy project started construction on a large scale, the railway construction project investment is also large, the demand for construction steel is large; the growth rate of shipbuilding, automobile, construction machinery and other industries is slowing down, and the strip and strip products are homogenized. Competition will be more intense. Profitability declines waiting for performance spring According to statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, listed steel enterprises realized a total operating income of 1.107 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.3% over the same period of last year, but the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased from 23.053 billion yuan last year to 19.633 billion yuan. Yuan, a reduction of 15%.
From the overall perspective of listed companies in the steel industry, the gross profit margin in the first three quarters of this year fell to 7.22%, the chain continued to decline by 0.3 percentage points, and the net interest rate was only 1.72%, down 0.3 percentage points.
According to the profits of 77 large and medium-sized steel mills calculated by the Steel Association, the accumulated profits from January to September were 82.34 billion yuan, an increase of 27.74% over the same period of the previous year. In September, the profit margin of large and medium-sized steel enterprises was only 2.53%, and the cumulative profit margin from January to September was only 2.99%. The performance of listed companies is significantly lower than the industry level, mainly because the profitability of construction steel is significantly better than that of sheet metal this year, while the large and medium-sized steel enterprises account for a large proportion, and the profitability is not as good as that of small and medium-sized enterprises that produce construction steel. Due to the sharp drop in steel prices in October, it is not excluded that the industry will suffer short-term losses.
According to the association's statistics, the industry's profit in the third quarter of this year fell 20% from the second quarter, while the listed company's third-quarter net profit fell 41% from the second quarter, which was in line with the summer's low season and the expected decline in performance.
Regarding the decline in the performance of the steel industry, Huatai Securities believes that on the one hand, with the strong procurement cost of iron ore and coke in the third quarter, the cost of steel enterprises still maintained a high growth year-on-year; on the other hand, steel prices remained in the third quarter. The high level of shocks, coupled with the high production and sales volume of steel mills, has led to a significant increase in total operating income.
Great Wall Securities said that the reason for the decline in earnings was that the increase in operating costs exceeded the increase in revenue. Second, the increase in costs, especially financial expenses and management fees have increased by more than 20%. In terms of quarterly, from 2010 to the present, the net profit in the third quarter of 2011 was only more than 10 years and 3 quarters, but the operating cost was far more than the third quarter of 10 years. The net interest rate and gross profit margin are also the same. In the case that the steel price has increased significantly compared with last year, the profit is still at a low level, which shows that the cost pressure of steel enterprises is great. The mid-term configuration value of the four types of varieties For the future performance of the steel industry, Huatai United Securities said that most of the current ordinary steel companies are still not strong in their ability to control their own profits. In the fourth quarter, the steel mills with long products can be gradually lowered. Earnings expectations, it is still recommended to focus on relevant special steel and resource-related enterprises, such as Xinxing Pipe, Taigang, Daye Special Steel, Bayi Iron and Steel, Jiugang Hongxing, Xining Special Steel, etc., as well as Baosteel and Hebei. Large-scale steel mills with stable earnings, favorable support, and long-term perspectives, maintaining the band operations measured from the perspective of relative valuation.
In addition, the current “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†for the steel industry mainly focuses on the main line of “structural adjustment, transformation and upgradingâ€. The first venture securities are recommended to focus on high-end steel, special steel varieties and third-grade rebar.
At the same time, the steel industry is experiencing the positive and negative impacts of industry cycle changes and economic cycle changes. From the industry pattern, the power of iron ore prices has slowed or disappeared, and the relative allocation value of the steel industry has gradually increased, but it is currently facing The adverse impact of the economic cycle: the economic growth rate declines. At this stage, the downturn of the economic cycle has a greater impact on earnings, while the improvement of the industry structure and bargaining power is a long-term and slow process.
In terms of valuation, Debon Securities believes that the current valuation level has basically reflected the expected decline in economic growth, maintaining the industry's "recommended" rating. In the medium and long term, companies with reasonable or low P/E ratios such as Daye Special Steel, Xining Special Steel, Bayi Iron and Steel, Xinxing Casting Pipe and Baosteel Co., Ltd.
Dongxing Securities also said that the current steel plate price-to-book ratio is only 1.15 times. The lowest valuation in history is 0.96 times the 2005 P/B ratio and 0.99 times the 2008 P/B ratio, because the valuation is not the same as the historical minimum. Big. At present, due to the decline in fixed asset investment, construction steel has begun to show weakness, industrial steel performance is relatively good, especially special steel still has good profitability. The main product market share is high, and the companies with strong profitability have advantages. They mainly recommend Baosteel, Daye Special Steel, Bayi Iron and Steel, Xining Special Steel, and Xinxing Casting Pipe.
In terms of medium-term configuration, Industrial Securities believes that stocks that have fallen sharply in the previous period but have not changed in the medium-term competitive advantage already have investment value. First, the sharp decline in the previous period of mineral prices has stabilized in stages. Although there is still room for decline in the later period, from the medium-term iron ore supply and demand and marginal cost support, the current price is close to the bottom region, and the price of Panzhihua Vanadium and Titanium has basically reflected. The negative expectations of mine price and company level are worthy of attention; secondly, mid-term recommendation Bayi Iron and Steel, Xinxing Casting Pipe and Linggang have fallen sharply. Third, continue to recommend Hebei Iron and Steel, with the deadline for the issuance of the issuance, the company's capital appeal will be more intense. Fourth, optimistic about the rebound in the valuation of Dagang, recommend Baosteel, Maanshan Iron and Steel, and Wuhan Iron and Steel.
The steel industry "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" six major goals CNC cutting machine market demand is optimistic
On November 6, Luo Tiejun, deputy director of the Raw Materials Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, revealed at the 13th China International Mining Conference that it is expected that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will officially announce the 12th Five-Year Plan for the steel industry this week. Supported by this good news, the industry is generally optimistic about the market demand for machine tools such as CNC cutting machines .