1. About economic growth

The story of China’s economic growth has always been regarded as a “miracle”, but in fact, the story of China’s growth over the past 40 years is not much different from that of many fast-growing economies in East Asia. It depends on investment and exports. Put China in the fast-growing East Asian economies, China is not the most successful. If measured in terms of per capita GDP growth, South Korea and Japan have spent less than 30 years, they have crossed the middle income trap and become advanced economies. China has spent nearly 40 years, and its achievements in per capita GDP lag far behind those of South Korea, Japan and other economies. This is a fact.

Moreover, whether China can surpass the middle-income trap is still unknown. The challenges China faces are far greater than those of Japan and South Korea. To say that China's economic growth is not a miracle is to tell everyone that Chinese people are smart. If they learn from others' successful experiences, they will certainly be able to succeed. But don't think that China has taken a different path from others.

2. About economic reform

China’s reforms have entered the deep-water region because everyone knows well that China’s future and destiny are tied to the success or failure of reforms. Every time reforms face difficulties, economists will propose what "top-level design." In fact, people who understand the history of China’s reform know that China’s reform is by no means a “top-level design,” but is really a step-by-step exploration. The rural reforms in 1978 were carried out by farmers at risk. The township enterprises in China are exactly the miracles created by the Chinese peasants.

Remember that reforms have always been done, not "designed." Why Deng Xiaoping's “Cat Theory” is great is Comrade Deng Xiaoping’s such a great figure. It is clear that we do not have the ability to design any reform programs that can only adapt to the historical trend and conform to the pioneering spirit of the people. Respecting ordinary people is the greatest place for leaders in the past and the most successful place for China’s reforms.

3, on the private economy

This year, private investment has fallen sharply. This is the biggest danger to the Chinese economy. In the past 40 years, over 60% of China’s economic growth contributed to the private economy. The key to China’s economic success is the productivity released by the “incremental” part of the private economy, rather than the state-owned enterprises that are stocked.

In the past, there was an argument that China’s state-owned portion accounted for nearly 70% of the resources, but its created GDP was not 30%, while private enterprises in China accounted for less than 30% of the resources and the created GDP was close to 70%. You don't look at the Global 500 or the China Top 500. The most profitable and top ranked companies are all state-owned enterprises. However, their contribution to China's economic growth and the ratio of resources they possess are indeed too small. Once China’s economically most important force drives the private economy to a problem, the Chinese economy will be in trouble.

4, about the Chinese model

For the success of the Chinese economy in the past, some people have summarized it as a “China model” to distinguish it from the “Washington consensus” on which some transition countries had succeeded in the past. In fact, I never think that there is something like the "Chinese model."

The success of the Chinese economy is still due to the fact that China has promoted market-oriented reforms. All miracles of the Chinese economy should be attributed to marketization and openness policies, not because China is truly special. If there are really miracles, it must be a miracle of the market economy. It is dominated by state-owned enterprises and monopolies are spread over various fields. The market economy still bears fruit. There is still only one road to China's future transformation. It is marketization reform! Do not sum up the experience wrong, do not think that there is a unique path to economic development.

5. About China's housing prices

China's housing prices are not developers high speculation. Since the marketization in 1998, the development of China's real estate industry has been generally successful. It has solved the housing problem of more than 700 million urban residents, making China's per capita living area reach more than 35 levels, and basically solved the problem of housing. However, due to China's control over the primary market of land, there is a shortage of land in China. In my previous articles, I have repeatedly stressed that China does not lack housing land. The shortage of residential land is entirely caused by human factors. Lack of land plus currency depreciation led to rising house prices in China.

In the past decade, China's most successful wealth story was about real estate. The real estate industry is China's craziest industry. Everyone is in desperation. Everyone joins the game of wealth. In order to rob the house, the ancestors have three generations to divorce. We rarely see which industry, like real estate, constantly regulates and controls, but constantly produces the fruits of wealth.

6. Is China too populated?

The fact that many people lead to resource constraints is a big lie in China’s economic reality. Modern science and modern economic history tells us that the shortage of resources is not due to the large population but the backwardness of productivity. Over the past 30 years, the Chinese economy has been driven by a low-cost labor force. Today, the predicament faced by the Chinese economy, especially the manufacturing industry, is rooted in the loss of cheap labor. The biggest problem faced by China’s current population policy is definitely not the large population and the high fertility rate. It is because the per capita income level is still at a low level and urbanization is far from complete. The population fertility rate is too low and the demographic dividend has ended prematurely. , and the resulting aging of a series of social and economic issues.

With regard to the low fertility rate of the Chinese population, the logic of the logic has gradually become clear over the past few years through the full discussion of all sectors of society. Whether it is the official census data or the predictions of experts and scholars, China’s current total fertility rate is not only significantly lower than in many developing countries, but it is also lower than the developed countries with low fertility rates, such as the European and British traditions. The “Economy Blue Book: Analysis and Forecast of China's Economic Situation in 2015” released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences believes that China’s current total fertility rate is only 1.4, which is far below the level of replacement of generations 2.1, and it is already very close to the internationally recognized “low fertility trap” of 1.3. ".

The result of low fertility rate is the early arrival of the turning point of China's labor force. According to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics: In 2012, the absolute number of people aged 15 to 59 years old in China’s labor force fell for the first time. The absolute reduction in the labor force population was 3.45 million in the same year, a decrease of 3.71 million in 2014, which is now an absolute reduction for three consecutive years. According to this trend, even with the most optimistic estimates, China's labor force will cumulatively reduce by nearly 30 million between 2010 and 2020.

In particular, with the change in people’s reproductive habits, more and more 80’s and 90’s are simply reluctant to have more children, which means that in the future China’s population is likely to fall. In the past, some demographers in China have always frightened China that there will be a population explosion. Therefore, there has been a change in childbearing policy from the release of two children alone to the full release of the second child. In fact, now we have abolished family planning altogether and encouraged people to give birth. There are already few children in life. The population problem is indeed the root cause of all economic problems in China. The decline in the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry is rooted in the population.

7. Will China repeat Japan's mistakes?

With regard to the future of the Chinese economy, economists have often been warned: China must avoid repeating the mistakes of Japan. In fact, I always believe that if China really repeats the mistakes of Japan, it is very happy. After the burst of the bubble economy, Japan experienced the so-called "lost two decades" and the economy stagnated. However, per capita GDP in Japan was as high as more than 40,000 U.S. dollars in 2012 and 32,000 U.S. dollars in 2015, which is three times that of China. The international competitiveness of Japan’s industries is far higher than that of China. Japan’s economic innovation is ranked first in the world. Japan’s primary and secondary education is at least half a century ahead of China’s. Japan’s per capita overseas assets are far ahead of the rest of the world.

Due to Japan's overseas investment strategy, Japan has net income from the world in the context of an aging population in Japan. If China repeats this mistake, I am 100 willing! China’s domestic lack of a correct understanding of the Japanese economy and Japan’s competitiveness has made Japan the best teacher in the past, present, and future. If we say that China really has to be vigilant to repeat the mistakes of Japan, it is by no means an economic stagnation or a real estate bubble. It is Japan’s demographic crisis. The reduction of Japan’s population is the biggest enemy of Japan’s national strength.

8. Is China truly the world's number one?

In 2009, China surpassed the United States as the world’s largest manufacturing country. From the perspective of the history of the rise, decline, and change of great powers, one country has become the world’s largest manufacturing country and is a necessary condition for the country to become the world's largest economic power. Britain surpassed China to become the largest manufacturing country, and the United States surpassed the United Kingdom, which means the transfer of the global economy. However, compared with the United Kingdom and the United States of that year, China’s largest manufacturing power is more the result of the global drift of manufacturing industries and the outsourcing of manufacturing power by the United States and other manufacturing powers.

We have said that China is the largest manufacturing country and it is calculated according to the GDP. If calculated according to GNP, the scale of Chinese manufacturing will be much lower than that of the United States. The reason is simple: iPhone is produced in China and is made in China according to GDP. However, according to GNP, most of the output value should be attributed to the United States. A large number of high-tech products based on GDP calculations, such as automobiles, mobile phones, and computers, will be diverted from China's output value according to GNP. Therefore, arguing whether China is the largest manufacturing country, not just industrial competitiveness, innovation ability, even in terms of scale, we are hard to say, China is really the first.

9. Why is China's stock market not a barometer of the economy?

Can not help but put the Chinese stock market into the top ten issues. Although I used to emphasize that the Chinese stock market belongs to the category of literature and art, it has nothing to do with economics. However, when the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) was recently told that it was prepared to take the stock market to help the poor, the listing of companies in impoverished areas did not need to be queued, again demonstrating that the Chinese stock market was not easy.

Many people always think that China has failed the most is two things: First, football, and the stock market. I agree with football. I don't agree with the stock market. China's stock market has not only failed, but it has done very well in terms of its historical mission. The Chinese stock market was originally created to reform state-owned enterprises and help state-owned enterprises to raise funds. State-owned enterprises have obtained a lot of financing from the stock market circle. Do you think it has failed?

Every time the stock market crashes, Chinese stockholders take responsibility for themselves and believe that they are greedy and willing to lose! This time the stock market has a new mission - help the poor! I am worried that a large number of unlisted companies will urgently move the company to my hometown!

10. Will China's economy hard-landing?

The answer is clear: The hard landing of the Chinese economy is a false proposition.

The Chinese economy is far from when the big cycle is going downhill. What is the biggest driving force of the Chinese economy in the past 30 years? It is reform and opening up, which is the change of people's concept of money and wealth. It is to encourage everyone to create wealth. I never think that the Chinese economy will cause major problems. As far as the long-term cycle is concerned, the most promising, most imaginative and most promising of the global economy is the Chinese economy. The creation of money by more than one billion Chinese people is an inexhaustible driving force for economic development.

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