Figure 1 Comparison of polyester production capacity and operating rate in 2007-2017

According to statistics, the capacity of the polyester old line device that has been restarted in 2017 is 1.95 million tons, of which the polyester polyester plant capacity is 1.45 million tons, and the other 500,000 tons of polyester old line device is 1 million tons of the original Hengyi (Shanghai). The old polyester production capacity, of which 500,000 tons of polyester flake unit was relocated to Hainan Yisheng, has been restarted. Hengyi (Shanghai) another 500,000 tons of polyester chipping equipment will be relocated to Hengyi (Xiaoshan), plans to produce 100,000 tons of polyester chips, and the rear channel will produce 200,000 tons of polyester staple fiber and 200,000 tons of polyester filament POY. . The polyester plant facilities that were bankrupt in the early stage were gradually reorganized and then normal production. The products were gradually put on the market, and the operating rate of the polyester industry was also significantly improved. In addition, the polyester market trended well this year, and the factory inventory hit a new low in the year. It is expected that the polyester factory will still have no during the Spring Festival. For large-scale maintenance programs, the average annual operating rate of polyester plants can be maintained at more than 80%.

In the first half of this year, the polyester market showed a slight rebound, but the duration was short. The polyester market in the first half of the year showed a general downward trend, but the profit of the related polyester products industry was significantly higher than that of the same period last year. In the second half of this year, international crude oil fluctuated and the polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol fluctuated strongly. The cost support was good. Due to the influence of environmental protection enforcement, the terminal parts of the printing and dyeing and weaving enterprises in the terminal partially broke out. The downstream follow-up is positive, the polyester upstream and downstream are working together, and the polyester market in the second half of the year has a gratifying market of “price increase”.

Figure 2 Comparison of profit and loss theory of polyester industry related products from 2016 to 2017

As of mid-November, the average annual profit of bottle-grade PET is about 15 yuan / ton. The average annual profit of fiber-grade PET is about 117 yuan / ton. This year, the polyester market is in a high-profit, high-start, low-inventory market. In the upstream PTA market of the polyester industry chain, it is expected that the new production units and old equipment will resume production during the year, and the spot supply will be in a tense situation. The destocking pattern has made the PTA market's production capacity clear; this year, the polyester market has accelerated its sales speed. The polyester polyester factory is often sold or closed for sale. Some of the specifications are oversold; the polyester industry In the textile market downstream of the chain, after strict environmental protection supervision policies, the backward printing and dyeing and part of the weaving capacity gradually withdrew from the production stage, which made the effective capacity utilization rate climb, laying a certain foundation for revitalizing the downstream market of the polyester industry chain.

In recent years, with the reorganization of new capacity and old capacity, the characteristics of high concentration of production capacity in the polyester market are gradually emerging. The mainstream polyester factory has a strong predictive and control over the market structure and price, and the polyester factory is generally located. High profit, high load and low inventory will lay a good foundation for the polyester market in the first half of next year.