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It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in January will basically maintain the level of last month, while the increase in PPI is expected to have two-way possibility of going up and down. Input-type inflation factors may play a decisive role.
CPI: 1.7%-1.9%
The forecast range for the CPI (Consumer Price Index) is concentrated between 1.7% and 1.9%, which is basically the same as last December and is expected to remain upward in the first half of the year.
Song Yu, a Chinese economist at Goldman Sachs, predicts that the CPI growth rate in January may slightly decrease from 1.9% in the previous month to 1.7%, and the inflation rate will be lower than expected. Sun Mingchun, chief economist of Nomura Securities, also believes that inflation will be under control this year, and the jump in inflation is caused by unexpected snowstorms in northern China.
Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, also believes that the main food prices continued to rise in January, but the decline slowed down.
Although the CPI increase did not change much in January, the parties believe that the positive growth of CPI will be further maintained. Tang Jianwei, senior macro analyst of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Department, expects prices to keep going up in the first half of 2010. “In the first quarter, prices may rise. In February, CPI is likely to exceed 3% year-on-year due to the Spring Festival factor.†He expects CPI to increase by 3% to 4% year-on-year for the whole year, and the trend for the whole year is low at the middle and high in the middle.
PPI: 1.5%-4.5%
The expected divergence of PPI (factory price of industrial products) is obvious, and the forecast interval is between 1.5% and 4.5%. From various perspectives, different judgments on commodity prices and input inflation factors have led to increased disagreements over PPI forecasts.
Li Huiyong, chief analyst of Shenyin Wanguo, expects the PPI increase in January to expand to 3.2%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points over the previous month. Li Huiyong pointed out that last year's PPI low base and demand-driven price increases, the combination of these two factors will lead to higher PPI.
CITIC Securities also expects the PPI to increase by 1.1% in January and 4.4% year-on-year.
However, some foreign investment banks have different views. Song Yu expects that the PPI year-on-year growth rate may fall from 1.5% in December last year to 1.5% due to the fall in commodity prices. He believes that in the context of the continued rapid rise in prices in the fourth quarter of last year, the recent decline in upstream commodity prices, the government's regulatory measures will slow this year's economic growth to a long-term trend.
Import and export: export or fallback In terms of import and export, experts from various institutions believe that the trend of import and export continues to accelerate, but there are differences in the growth rate of exports.
Li Huiyong also believes that the export growth rate may fall slightly, and is expected to grow by 15.6%. The growth rate is 2.1 percentage points lower than that of the previous month.
Economists including the Industrial Bank Lu political commissar and Gao Sheng Song Yu predicted that exports in January will rise slightly from last month, and the year-on-year growth of exports may increase by 3 percentage points from 17.7% last month.
Wang Tao, head of China's economic research at UBS Securities, expects exports and imports to increase by 30% and 65% respectively in January from a year earlier.
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Multi-party forecast January economic data CPI is basically flat
From February 10th, the macroeconomic data for the first month of 2010 will be released one after another. Due to the reporting system, the National Bureau of Statistics and the General Administration of Customs only publish price and import and export data, but these data are judged policies. The direction is still very important.