The April PMI data showed that the domestic economy was back in the short term, and the macro-control effect appeared, but the inflationary pressure has not been significantly relieved. The mainstream institutions in the industry believe that the future CPI inflation index may fall slightly, but in the medium term, the indicator will continue to be at a relatively high level. The latest report released by the central bank yesterday also pointed out that the current economic growth and employment situation is better, and it is the key to stabilize prices and manage inflation expectations.  

Central Bank: further play the role of direct financing

The central bank’s latest “China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the First Quarter of 2011” stated that in the next stage, it will implement a sound monetary policy, pay attention to the rhythm and intensity of regulation, maintain policy continuity and stability, and handle it well. Control the relationship between the total amount of money and improve the structure, and deal with the relationship between promoting economic growth and suppressing inflation. It is necessary to strengthen liquidity management and put a good liquidity gate. According to the requirements of the development of the situation, comprehensively use various price and quantity tools such as open market operations, deposit reserve ratio, interest rate, etc., improve the macro-prudential policy framework, and cooperate with conventional monetary policy tools to maintain a reasonable scale and pace of social financing. Manage inflation expectations.

It is worth noting that the central bank specifically pointed out that "currently, economic growth and employment situation are better, and stabilizing prices and managing inflation expectations are key." In the future, it will "steadily promote the reform of interest rate marketization and the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. Continue to promote product innovation in the financial market and maintain the healthy development of the financial market. Further play the role of direct financing and support enterprises to raise funds through equity, bonds and other financing methods."

The macro analyst of the newspaper believes that the above statement of the central bank shows on the one hand that under the current economic environment, in order to curb inflation, there is still enough room for monetary policy. On the other hand, the capital market will play an increasingly important role in the composition of “the total amount of social financing”, and the expansion of the stock market is inevitable.

April CPI may not be a new high

The CPI growth rate in March climbed to a high of 5.4%. A large number of institutions in the industry expect inflation to maintain a high level (between 4% and 5%) for a long time to come, but whether the CPI data for individual months will be created New heights, differences are not small. The macro group of the CITIC Securities Research Department believes that the April PMI index showed that the upstream inflation pressure has weakened. The April CPI price index forecast is 5.0% and the PPI is 7.3%.

UBS expects CPI to remain at a high of more than 5% in the next three to five months. Food prices will fall in the second half of the year and offset rising non-food inflation. It is expected that interest rates will be raised once in the second quarter and interest rates will be raised once in the third quarter.

The pace of appreciation or further acceleration

UBS economist Wang Tao believes that due to the high CPI in the second quarter and the weak dollar, the RMB against the US dollar may appreciate at a rate of 1% per month for the next two months. Compared with less than 2% appreciation this year, this speed is indeed much faster. However, Wang Tao believes that this speed will not last too long, "because the government will not allow the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar in 2011 to exceed 5-6%. We maintain the forecast of RMB 6.2 against the US dollar at the end of the year."

For the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar throughout the year, this newspaper has conducted in-depth reports in the early stage. In general, industry institutions are currently expecting an increase in the appreciation rate, and there are not a few investment banks that believe that the annual appreciation rate is between 7% and 8%.

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