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Construction machinery sales fell for two consecutive months in the industry or bid farewell to the golden age
Zhang Jian (pseudonym), who has been immersed in the construction machinery industry for many years, did not expect this year's situation to change so fast: last year, the sales volume of the entire construction machinery industry exploded, and major construction machinery companies earned a lot of money, but this year. As soon as the first quarter ended, the explosive growth situation quickly stagnated. According to the planning at the beginning of this year, his company Xugong Machinery (000425.SZ) expects the load of the loader to increase by more than 10% this year, but after the data in April and May are released, he feels that it may be difficult to complete this task. . China Construction Machinery Industry Association statistics show that excavator sales in May showed a negative growth for the first time, down 10% year-on-year, bulldozer sales decreased by 34%, while loader sales remained stable, but fell more than 20%. This is the second decline in major construction machinery products in April after the decline. The decline in sales in April was once thought to be caused by the fact that the base in March was too high. However, after the data was released in May, major companies in the industry had to re-examine downstream demand. Zhang Jian is mainly responsible for the loader market. He said that feedback from downstream sales shows that frequent changes in national policies this year, especially credit policies, have led to slower progress in many projects, and many new projects are more difficult to fund, and new projects are more It was also less last year. The main users of loaders are mining resources and infrastructure projects. According to Zhang Jian, the sales of loaders in the field of mining resources have been relatively stable this year, and the decline in sales volume is mainly reflected in the field of infrastructure engineering. According to data from the Ministry of Railways, the fixed assets investment of the railway from January to April this year was 173.273 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%. From January to May, it was 219.993 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 10.4%, and the growth rate dropped sharply. “It’s not just that Xugong’s loader sales have fallen from the previous month, and other major companies have also experienced different levels of decline.†Zhang Jian said. Shanhe Intelligence ( 12.30 , -0.30 , -2.38% ) (002097.SZ) A senior executive said in an interview with China Business News that "the slowdown in railway investment has a great impact on construction machinery." China Construction Machinery Industry Association Honorary President Han Xuesong told this newspaper that last year the railway actually completed the infrastructure investment of 709.1 billion yuan, and this year China's railway capital construction plan has an investment of 700 billion yuan. The investment scale is basically the same as that in 2010, so the growth of construction machinery is not too big. Pull action. At the end of last year, Han Xuesong had poured cold water on some optimistic companies in the industry. “When the meeting was held at the end of last year, many companies were very optimistic that they might maintain a growth rate of 50% to 60% this year. At that time, I said that it is impossible to maintain such growth.†Han Xuesong said. Benefiting from the 4 trillion policy and the low base in 2009, all construction machinery products achieved high growth in 2010, among which excavators, loaders, truck cranes, forklifts, bulldozers, road rollers and graders increased respectively. 74.5%, 51.1%, 28.4%, 58.9%, 62.2%, 58.0% and 29.1%. Han Xuesong believes that the sharp increase in sales in the first quarter was the inertia of the fourth quarter of last year. The decline in sales in April and May was relatively normal, in line with expectations. "From the sales data since June, we predict that the overall loader sales in June may continue to decline by more than 20% from the previous month." Zhang Jian told this newspaper that for the company itself, the first half of the year basically achieved a growth target of about 10%. But from the perspective of the whole year, "there is a lot of pressure." Stress is not only reflected in the completion of tasks. Since many companies in the first quarter in order to increase sales, they have not reduced the down payment ratio and even adopted zero down payment, which has led to a significant increase in corporate accounts and financial risks. Although zero down payment was opposed by industry associations, reducing the down payment ratio was not contained. "There is no way. The sales volume in the first quarter of this year has already overdrawn the market. Now the market continues to decline. The companies have to increase sales through various methods in order to complete the tasks set at the beginning of the year." Zhang Jian said. In fact, in the first quarter of this year, the financial statements of major listed companies in the construction machinery industry have shown that accounts receivable have risen sharply. After the second quarter data is released, it is still not optimistic.