In the first half of 2011, under the background of inflation, due to rising manufacturing costs, suspension of seasonal processing lines, and decline in purchasing power, the entire plate market experienced a weak development. The prices of high-end steel plates such as silicon steel, automobile plates, pipeline steel, and shipbuilding plates When the decline occurred, the steel factory price was also forced by sales pressure and dropped again and again. After half an year's adjustment, the ex-factory price of the plate was basically adjusted to a relatively low level. Up to now, domestic key steel mills such as Baosteel, Wuhan Iron and Steel, Anshan Steel, Hebei Iron and Steel Group, Shougang, and Benxi Steel have issued price policies for August. Among them, except for the price drop of medium plate products, the price of other varieties is mostly flat. The author believes that from the view of the steel product price policy, there may be some adjustments in the plate market price in the second half of the year.

According to analysis by industry insiders, the factory price of mid-plate steelmakers in the first-line steelmakers in August has experienced a large drop. There are two main reasons: First, the input capacity of the medium plate line has been excessive in recent years. Statistics show that at present, there are 76 domestic plate production lines with a total design capacity of 85 million tons. However, with the concentration of production capacity released this year, demand did not reach expectations, and the growth rate of major downstream industries, such as construction machinery manufacturing and shipbuilding, slowed down significantly. Take the shipbuilding industry as an example. From January to June this year, China's new ship orders took a total of 21.6 million dwt, which was a decrease of 9.2% year-on-year. About half of the companies within the statistical scope did not receive orders, and 10 of the 43 ship companies that were monitored were not receiving orders. In addition, end-users in some regions used hot-rolled coils instead of mid-plates, resulting in further shrinking demand for mid-boards. Second, the prices of mid-plate and second-tier and third-tier steel mills followed the adjustment of market price fluctuations, and some steel mills could not seek orders by competing prices. Although the direct supply ratio of the medium plate in the first-line steel mills is relatively large, due to the above pressure, the prices of the products have to be adjusted. The situation of cold-rolled products and hot-rolled products is similar to that of medium-thick steel plates, and the price is also falling sharply due to insufficient demand in the terminal industry.

In July and August, the traditional demand for wire rods and rebars was off-season, but recently the market for wire rods and rebars did not show much weakness. In the second half of the year, the “bubble” of inflation will be less likely to burst in the short term. If there is no major risk in the financial system, the wire rod market or the rebar market will continue to operate strongly under the effect of the construction of 10 million units of affordable housing. Considering the cost, with the strong support of wire rod and rebar prices, the price of sheet metal will continue to fall less. In addition, China is a policy-oriented economic model. Since there are currently signs of a decline in the growth rate of the manufacturing industry, economic policies in the latter period may provide policy support for the rapid growth of the manufacturing industry.

In addition, from the current cost calculation, due to production costs, profits and other reasons, cold-rolled plate, hot-rolled plate, its reasonable spread should be 600 yuan / ton ~ 800 yuan / ton, but the difference between the two is relatively small, steel mill cold rolled plate The factory price may have the potential to rise first.

Considering comprehensively, in the second half of the year, although the steel market will continue to be a “long steel and weak sheet” pattern, the high profit margin of long products in the first half of the year will reduce the space for continued upward growth; the plate market has experienced a sluggish operation in the first half of the year. And it will not be in an unprofitable stalemate for a long time. Perhaps the opportunity of the plate market will come soon.