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The acceleration of the phased appreciation may be due to the slowdown in the market. In the context of the turbulent global market turmoil, the “loose and tight†strategy of “interesting interest rate policy to let the exchange rate move first†is affirmed. Experts also pointed out that the pace of accelerated appreciation of the renminbi is not sustainable, and most market institutions still maintain the forecast that the renminbi will appreciate by 5% to 6% during the year. The negative impact that bears the brunt is the impact on foreign trade companies. "A few days ago, the renminbi against the US dollar was still around 6.43, and today it broke through 6.4. In 2 to 3 days, it is 3 cents worse. Many foreign trade companies are afraid to take orders. If it is said that mourning may be exaggerated, but I estimate that the operation of one-third of small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises in China will fall into an abnormal state in the case of a sharp rise in the RMB exchange rate." Ling Lanfang, chairman and senior economist of the Silk Road Group, said, "China is now biting its teeth and putting GDP The growth rate has dropped, and the focus on improving the quality of economic growth is bound to be at the expense of a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises to survive the fittest. At this critical moment of adjustment, companies have to meet the challenge, or through the transformation and upgrading to increase product added value, or flexible The foreign market turned to open up the domestic market.†The reporter found that many foreign trade companies have already had some psychological preparations for the appreciation of the renminbi, and they have adopted early settlement methods to avoid risks. However, these technical measures are still a drop in the bucket. The situation of short-term eating and not enough is still relatively common. Anbang Consulting Researcher predicts that the impact of the accelerated appreciation of the renminbi on exports will gradually emerge in the second half of the year. Nomura Securities released a report saying that in addition to the safe-haven currencies, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, European currencies, commodity currencies, and emerging economies' currencies have weakened to varying degrees against the US dollar. In the case that the above currencies are weak against the US dollar, the renminbi's unilateral appreciation against the US dollar is equivalent to an increase in the appreciation of the renminbi against most non-US currencies. "The flexibility of the RMB exchange rate should be increased. Referring to a basket of currencies, considering the trend of other non-US currencies, the US dollar has risen and fallen." Chen Xuebin suggested, "The current pattern of rising or not against the US dollar is unsustainable. The external market economy such as the United States has stabilized, and the gradual appreciation of the renminbi may come to an end." Yu Yongding, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and a member of the former central bank's monetary policy committee, also said that China has maintained its current account surplus and capital almost continuously for more than 20 years. Account surplus, and holds a large number of foreign assets denominated in US dollars and external liabilities denominated in RMB. The monetary structure of such assets and liabilities makes China's net international investment position very vulnerable when the US dollar depreciates against the RMB. It’s time to rely on the dollar.
The renminbi against the US dollar into the 6.3 era foreign trade enterprises can not escape the impact
The US debt and European debt turmoil continues to be rampant, and the rumors that France's AAA rating may be down, the risk aversion in the market is getting stronger and stronger, and the dollar is sharply higher driven by safe-haven buying. Unexpectedly, the renminbi has further expanded its upward trend against the US dollar and entered the “6.3†era. For the recent rise in the central parity of the RMB, analysts interpret it as the focus of the international economic situation on the increasingly severe and complicated stage. The central bank mainly uses exchange rate means to curb inflation. As the external market gradually stabilizes, the appreciation of the renminbi It will eventually slow down. In this process, many export-oriented enterprises in China have to face challenges. The RMB exchange rate has reached a new high in the second half of the year. It may face a faster appreciation. The yuan will break the middle price of the US dollar. 6.4 Release the exchange rate policy. New signals . The internal factors and external forces of the RMB exchange rate trot. Since the beginning of August, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has trotting all the way, breaking through 6.44, 6.43. At the 6.42 mark, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar broke through 6.4 to 6.3991 on the 11th, which surprised many insiders. "The central parity of the RMB against the US dollar has hit a new high since the exchange rate reform on the 10th, and the US dollar has strengthened in the overnight market. I originally estimated that the median price of the yuan may fall against the US dollar today. I did not expect it to increase by 176 basis points from yesterday. Chen Xuebin, executive vice president of the Institute of Finance of Fudan University, said frankly. The Fudan RMB exchange rate index led by him has clearly shown that during the trading days since the outbreak of the US debt crisis, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar has twice refreshed the one-day gains since this year. The Fudan RMB exchange rate index from July 27 The 112 of the day jumped to 114.5. What caused the RMB to rise so dramatically? And why did you choose this time node? Economists interpret from different angles. The most recent factor is the just released China's July trade surplus data. Although the market has already expected the trade surplus in July to hit its highest point in the year, the trade surplus of more than $30 billion is still much higher than expected. Liu Ligang, director of economic research at Greater Australia in Greater Australia, expects that as the production cycle gradually enters a climax, China will maintain a high trade surplus in the coming months, allowing the renminbi to appreciate to some extent. China's trade data gives confidence to the global market, but for our policy makers, it creates a “policy dilemmaâ€. On the one hand, a large number of trade surpluses flow into the banking system through the channels of settlement, which will cause an increase in domestic liquidity and pressure from inflation. On the other hand, in the face of turmoil in international financial markets, in order to prevent a significant decline in the economy, the decision-making level It is difficult to maintain the intensity of austerity at such a level. "At present, facing the debt crisis in the US and Europe, it is estimated that the decision-making level will not use the two tools of interest rate hike and deposit reserve for the time being, but will maintain a certain tightening force through the exchange rate appreciation of the renminbi to curb inflation." Liu Dongliang, senior analyst of China Merchants Bank In an interview with reporters, he said.