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On May 1, a report released by the American Institute of Supply Management (ISM) showed that the manufacturing index rose to 40.1% in April, better than the 36.3% last month. This is the 15th month of the data being in a contracted state (less than 50% reading). However, scrutinizing the sub-items has shown signs of recovery.
Among the 11 major indicators reported by the ISM, the most important Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has rebounded to 40.1% in April, up 3.8 percentage points from the previous month.
According to the simple estimation of the correlation between PMI and GDP, the monthly single-month data after the annualized treatment indicates that the annual GDP contraction is 0.3%; the average ISM manufacturing index from January to April can be calculated. The annual GDP is roughly 1.3% negative growth. This is a great news compared to the available data. According to a report released by the US Department of Commerce on April 29, the annualized rate of US GDP in the first quarter of 2009 fell by 6.1%.
The rise in PMI in April, the increase in new orders and production “made great effortsâ€, the readings of these two sub-indicators increased by 6 percentage points and 4 percentage points respectively. These two sub-indicators each have a weight of 20% in the PMI, so there is a 2.5 percentage point increase in the overall PMI.
In terms of specific industries, six of the 18 manufacturing industries began to see new orders growth, and three industries reported increased production.
Industries in which new orders are growing include: plastics and rubber products, non-metallic mineral products, electrical equipment and parts, miscellaneous manufacturing, computers and electronics and machinery; industries with increased production include: miscellaneous manufacturing, computers and electronics and machinery.
In all of the 18 manufacturing industries, only miscellaneous manufacturing has not shrunk. This is because miscellaneous manufacturing includes medical equipment, jewelry, sports goods, toys and office supplies, and the consumption demand of these goods is not affected by the economic downturn.
In the ISM report, interviews with some industry purchasing managers were also cited:
“Although international customers still have demand, new orders may face the risk of insufficient cash flow.†– The computer and electronics industry “began to see signs of increased demand and output from some automotive industry customers.†– Metal Products Industry “The business situation is still weak, but agricultural-related products are still full of vitality.†– The machinery manufacturing industry “will be better in the third quarter, and we remain optimistic about this.†– The chemical products industry “began to hear some sub-industry orders slightly The news is getting better, but not all." - The comments of the purchasing managers of these industries in the electrical equipment industry show that although the ISM manufacturing index improved in April, it obviously depends on certain industries, such as the automotive industry and agricultural machinery. Manufacturing Industry. Moreover, the danger of customer cash flow "cut off" also makes purchasing managers more "sweet".
U.S. manufacturing industry reveals "Dawn"
Although the decline of US manufacturing industry has not reversed in April, the confidence of the manufacturing industry has stabilized.